Malik Nabers Is Being Slept On — Unless You Follow the Sportsbooks

Malik Nabers is coming off one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory, but you wouldn't know it by looking at Yahoo fantasy football or ESPN fantasy football rankings.

Despite dominating in targets, receptions, and yards last season, Nabers is ranked just 10th overall on ESPN for 2025 — barely cracking the top wide receiver tier. But our Vegas-backed fantasy football rankings tell a very different story.

Here’s why Nabers is one of the most undervalued fantasy football picks heading into the 2025 draft — and why you need to stop relying on ESPN projections.

ESPN’s 2025 Fantasy Outlook for Malik Nabers

ESPN projects:

• 107 receptions
• 1,421 total yards
• 8 touchdowns
• 299.98 fantasy points
• Ranked 10th overall

They highlight his massive target share (170 targets in 2024), elite catch rate, and consistency — even with New York’s quarterback chaos. The numbers look great.

But the sportsbooks aren’t as optimistic.

Vegas Fantasy Football Projections for Nabers

According to our product — built entirely on NFL betting markets — Nabers is projected for:

• 1,150.5 receiving yards
• 110.29 receptions
• 7.5 touchdowns
• 1 projected missed game
• 271.0 total fantasy points
• 7th overall in total projected scoring

That’s a 29-point difference from ESPN. He’s still a top-10 fantasy football WR, but Vegas is baking in a tougher playoff schedule, a more conservative stat line, and risk-adjusted volume.

What Explains the Gap?

Sites like ESPN Fantasy, Yahoo Fantasy Sports, and NFL.com Fantasy Football tend to build projections around team optimism and volume trends. They don’t fully account for:

• Injury probabilities (Nabers has a moderate risk and is projected to miss a game)
• Playoff difficulty (Nabers has a “Challenging” playoff path with a 41 SOS score)
• Market efficiency from sportsbook prop lines and player totals

Vegas sees everything through the lens of risk-adjusted expectation — which is what makes our fantasy football projections more accurate over time.

How to Draft Nabers the Right Way

Nabers is still a strong WR1, especially in PPR fantasy football leagues, Dynasty fantasy football, and even Best Ball Fantasy formats.

But if you’re taking him inside the top 6 because of ESPN fantasy football mock drafts, you might be overdrafting a player whose projections are already priced in. Our model places him right around WR6–WR7 — strong value, just not elite tier.

The Takeaway

If you’re blindly trusting ESPN fantasy football rankings or Yahoo mock drafts, you’re setting yourself up for mispriced picks. Nabers is a top-tier talent, but only the sportsbooks and Vegas data show you how to draft him properly.

Want our full cheat sheet — with Vegas-based fantasy football draft rankings, sleepers, busts, and trap picks?