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Seven is considered the luckiest number of them all. It’s 7/7, so it’s only fitting that we sweep the MLB card today, right? Right. Here are three of my favorite pitcher props for Monday, July 7th.
Jacob DeGrom o17.5 outs (-145) vs LAA + Freddy Peralta 1+ BBA = -119 (DK)
A staple for yours truly, we’re backing Jacob DeGrom to go at least six innings once again. I don't get why we continue to get this line for the All-Star. Despite missing the past couple of seasons, he has proven he is still the same old DeGrom. The Rangers ace is over this in 8 of his last 9 starts, ranks 2nd in pitching+, and does it efficiently. His 3.77 pitches per plate appearance is t-41st out of 121 qualified SPs. The Angels have been hitting better, but DeGrom is matchup proof.
We're reducing the juice with Freddy Peralta to issue a free pass facing the Dodgers. He has done so in 45 of his last 50 starts, and the Dodgers are 1st in BB% against righties this season.
Noah Cameron u2.5 ER (-165) vs PIT + Yusei Kikuchi 5+ Ks = +106 (DK)
The Pirates are allergic to lefties. All pitching really, but they're 29th in wRC+ (71) vs LHP on the year. 14 of the 20 Southpaws to face them have stayed under 2.5 ER, and I’d expect the Royals rookie to do the same. He's in the top 93% in xERA, 71% CSW%, under this in 8/9 starts, and KC isn't letting him work very deep either. He is averaging just 85 pitches per start, and was pulled after 80 pitches last game, despite hurling 4.2 scoreless IP. So, naturally, we're getting -165 odds and in need of a juice reducer, so let's take a look at Yusei Kikuchi for 5+ Ks. He is back to his strikeout ways, striking out 7 (ATL), 12 (BOS), 9 (HOU), and 10 (BAL) over his last four starts. That's more in line with the Yusei from last season (28.4% K%). He has 5+ Ks in 14/18 starts this year, and 38 of his last 50 since last season. The Rangers are 12th in K% vs LHP, and 14/20 lefty starters vs them have recorded 5+ Ks.
Christopher Sanchez o5.5 Ks -125 vs SF (FD)
Of course I bailed on Jacob Lopez o5.5 Ks (+110) last night against the Giants, and the A’s lefty finds 8 punchouts in just 4.1 IP. We’re not making that mistake again here with Christopher Sanchez on the bump. He is one of the bigger All-Star snubs this year: t-7th in pitching+, top 86% xERA, 93% xFIP, 83% K%, and 92% CSW%. He faced the Giants back in April and struck out 12 across 7 frames. Had 7 punchouts in 6 scoreless against them last season as well. The Giants are 3rd in K% (26.1%) and 22nd in wRC+ (82) facing lefties over the past 30 days.