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NFL player props offer a wide range of markets to bet on each week, and they often settle faster than traditional bets like moneylines, point spreads, or totals. For instance, a player could hit their over [on yards/receptions] or score a touchdown early in the game, meaning you don’t need to wait until the final whistle to see if your bet wins. This fast-paced action keeps the excitement going.
When betting on NFL player props, there are several important factors and strategies to consider. Simply placing random bets on props without a plan will likely favor the sportsbook. Let’s walk through some key considerations and strategies to improve your chances when betting on NFL player props.
Impact of the Spread and Total: Knowing the game’s spread helps determine which players or props to focus on or avoid. If you agree with the sportsbook’s assessment of a game with a 14-point spread, the underdog may be playing from behind, leading to fewer rushing opportunities for their running back. Conversely, the favorite’s running back may get more touches to run out the clock. The game’s total works similarly: in low-scoring games (under 40 points), betting on overs or touchdowns is risky, while high-scoring games (near 60 points) make unders less appealing.
Check the Weather (duh): Always check the weather before locking in bets. You don’t want to bet on a quarterback’s passing yards, thinking the line is low, only to find out the game is being played in a downpour with high winds.
Strengthen Your Research A common mistake is relying solely on player averages. For example, if a player averages 51 receiving yards per game and the line is set at 48.5, you may be tempted to take the over. However, you should dig deeper. Does the player go over the line more often in certain conditions, like when their team is favored or when playing indoors? Context matters, and it’s essential to consider factors beyond just the average.
Each Matchup Is Unique: Just because a player had a standout game last week doesn’t guarantee they’ll do the same in the next game. Each matchup is different, and some schemes work better against certain opponents. Coaches often develop strategies specific to their opponents, so it’s important to evaluate each game on its own rather than betting based on last week’s performance.
Don’t Overlook Unders: Betting on unders might not be as fun, but defensive-minded coaches like Bill Belichick and Vic Fangio have proven they can limit offensive production. Unders do happen, and they can be profitable.
Check Opening Lines: Sportsbooks release many player props every week, and with so many lines to manage, some may be mispriced. Sharper bettors will find these opportunities quickly, so it’s important to check lines early before they tighten up.
Line Shopping: Finding the best line and odds is crucial. Even a small difference in yards or odds can affect the outcome of your bet. For example, instead of taking Patrick Mahomes to go over 297.5 passing yards at one sportsbook, check other books to see if you can find a line of 294.5 or better odds. Maximizing your returns is key to long-term betting success.
Are NFL Player Prop Bets Worth It? NFL player props are a fantastic option for betting during the season. Unlike traditional bets that rely on the performance of many players, props focus on the outcome of a single player’s performance, making it easier to research and bet on. Player props are also familiar territory for those with fantasy sports or DFS experience, as the research involved translates well to prop betting.
