The Complete Betting Guide
Master the fundamentals of profitable sports betting
Table of Contents
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Unit Betting & Bankroll Management
Proper unit sizing is debated across the industry, but it is generally accepted as being 1-3% of your bankroll. By bankroll we mean the amount of money you have set aside for sports betting. Your bankroll should be split up between multiple betting accounts - we'll get into this later.
If you have $1,000 set aside for gambling, your unit size would range from $10 to $30 depending on your risk tolerance. Choose whatever is most comfortable for you, but make sure once the percentage is set, you always stick with it!
You should never bet above 7% of your total bankroll in one day. This number can vary, but make sure you are always under the 7% range.
In order to stay in this range, you need to get used to making quarter, half, three quarter, and full unit bets. Usually this depends on your confidence level, but it is also a great way to make sure you are not over leveraged with only full unit bets.
Many different articles suggest that bettors should make full unit plays on bets that are around even odds - this is illogical, especially for high volume bettors. If your full unit size is 3%, after three even odds bets, you are risking almost 10% of your entire bankroll. Miss all three bets and you're down 10%.
ROI Tracking
Keeping track of your ROI (return on investment) is not only a great way to determine your success, but it allows you to see how much you bet vs how much you profit - a win percentage can only tell you so much.
ROI Formula:
ROI = (Profit/Amount Wagered) x 100
You can keep track of all of your bets in many different ways. Many beginners choose to keep a record of profit/loss in their notes app or even a google doc. We'd recommend opening an excel file or even using a service like the action network.
Basic tracking should include:
- Units at risk
- Dollars at risk
- Bet odds
- W/L status
- Payout amount
At the end of every day you should calculate total profit or loss, along with ROI.
Important: We always determine our unit size according to units we are willing to risk, NOT units to win. We believe this is the best unit betting strategy.
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Line Shopping
Every professional sports bettor knows how crucial it is to be signed up to many different sports books. There is no set minimum or maximum amount of books you should have, but we recommend having at least three you can play on.
As mentioned in Chapter I, your bankroll will be spread out over multiple different books. Your money doesn't have to be evenly spread out, but you should have somewhat similar amounts in each of your accounts.
This ensures you are able to bet and find the best odds for each bet you are willing to take. And if you get kicked off a book, you'll always have a backup. While it may seem minimal in the short run, finding a bet with +5 to +10 or more better odds will be well worth it in the long run! Every extra dollar counts!
In order to line shop efficiently, you need to get familiar with odd shops. After some time, you will likely find books that consistently have the best odds - sign up for those! These are websites that allow you to see different lines across different books for the same game.
The more you shop... the more you win!
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Implied Odds & Hedging Bets
Implied probability represents the likelihood of an event occurring based on the betting odds provided by a sports book. A sports book will estimate the likelihood of an event occurring and represent that likelihood in the form of betting odds (-150, 60% chance of occurring).
Formula for a Favorite:
Implied Probability = Odds/(Odds+100)
Ex. -150 odds, Implied prob = 150/250 = 60%
Formula for an Underdog:
Implied Probability = 100/(Odds+100)
Ex. +150 underdog, Implied prob = 100/250 = 40%
What it means to be a Profitable Bettor:
- +100 = 50.5% win rate for profit
- -110 = 53% win rate for profit
- -120 = 55% win rate for profit
- -150 = 60.5% win rate for profit
A $100 bettor across 100 bets going 50-50 (50%):
- +100 = +$0
- -110 = -$454.50
- -120 = -$834.50
- -150 = -$1,666.50
Hedging your Bet
Hedging your bet means locking in guaranteed profit and saving yourself from any unnecessary loss. Majority of the time bettors execute hedges by taking the exact opposite of their original bet while the game is still live.
For initial wagers between -200 and -150 the hedge threshold begins when you have the opportunity to 2x-2.5x the original bet's profit, while placing a wager that is 75% or less of the original profit.
For initial wagers of -150 or less, the hedge threshold begins when you have the opportunity to 1.5x the original bet's profit, while placing a wager that is 75% or less of the original profit.
Example hedge scenario:
- Original bet: $100 at -120 to profit $83. The opponents line was set at +110
- Hedge bet: Opponents line moves to +200. Bet $61 to profit $122
- Original bet wins: $83 profit - $61(hedge) = $22 net profit
- Hedge bet wins: $122 profit - $100(original) = $22 net profit
Calculating hedge risk/profit: $83 x .75= $61 risk / $83 x 1.5 = $122 profit
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Reverse Line Movement
Reverse line movement occurs when sports books adjust their lines to balance the action. In most cases, this tends to happen when sharp bettors place large bets on the opposite side of the public.
Because the sports books' goal for creating any odds line is to have a balanced amount of money on both sides, reverse line movement is necessary to try to make the liability on each side closer to 50/50.
Real Example: Chiefs vs Colts
The Chiefs were home favorites against the Colts with an opening line of -7. Throughout the week, the number of bets and total dollars wagered had been consistently coming in on the chiefs - making this a majority public play.
Instead of the Chiefs becoming more favored (which should've happened to make the line a less favorable bet to place, thus pushing for more public bets on the Colts), the line actually moved in favor of the colts.
As the week went on, the Chiefs spread line changed to -6.5, then to -6, and eventually closed at -5.5, generating a +1.5 point difference.
This would be considered reverse line movement because the line moved in the opposite direction of the public's bets and opinion of what would happen in the contest. This is a clear indication of sharp money and Vegas siding with the professional bettors for this matchup.
Nothing is ever a "lock" or a guarantee, but understanding where the professional bettors have their money can give you a huge advantage against the books.
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Insiders Checklist Before Making a Bet
Every bettor has a different process when it comes to making specific types of bets. In this checklist of questions, we're going to be covering some of the key things you should ask yourself before making a bet.
1) Previous Performances
Spread:
- What is this team's record against the spread?
- How many times have they covered as an underdog? As a favorite?
- What is their record against the spread at home? On the road?
Moneyline:
- What is this team's record at home? Away?
- Why would they be road favorites? Why would they be underdogs at home?
- Have these teams matched up before? What will the home environment look like?
Total:
- How many times have either of these teams gone over the given total? Under?
- What is the pace of play? Does the pace accurately reflect the total?
- How has their offense been performing recently?
2) Line Movement & Betting Splits
Reverse Line Movement: Reverse line movement is the practice of sportsbooks adjusting their lines in the exact opposite direction of what logic would suggest in order to balance the action.
Trap Games: This typically happens when the public is all over one side because it seems "too easy". You can sniff these out typically through reverse line movement.
3) Injuries & Referee Bias
Injury Reports:
- Check injury reports to find if certain players are sitting out
- If they are, does the line reflect this?
- Who are the back-ups? How does this benefit the opponent?
Referees:
- How has this team performed under this specific referee?
- Does it change based on home or away?
- Do they score more, less, or an average amount of points under this referee?
4) Theories & Systems
Theories: Come up with your own theories that you can track and test over time. Here's an example: "When the O/U total is set between 'X' & 'X', and the home team is coming off a loss, how often does the over hit?"
Systems: Create your own systems that automatically track the outcome of matchups for you. Using excel, sports insights, or even online websites that have their own system builders.
5) Trends
Season long: What's their recent win %? What's their opponent's recent win %? Are they making a playoff run?
Conference: What's their in conference versus out of conference record? Why does this record make sense?
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Insiders Checklist Before Making a Player Prop
Now, we're going to take you through our checklist of questions you must answer before making a player prop. This checklist will help for player props across all major sports!
1) Checking the Matchup
- Spread: Is this game expected to be a blow out? Will star players play less minutes?
- Total: Is this game expected to be high scoring? What about low scoring?
- Injuries: Who is injured for today's game? Will this affect how other players perform?
2) Opponent Stats
- Pace: Pace is a stat that measures possessions per game. How many possessions per game does this team average?
- Offensive rating: How efficient is this team's offense? Are they above/below average?
- Defensive rating: How good is this team's defense compared to others?
3) Opponent Profile
- Opponent FG%: How is this team's FG% allowed compared to the league average?
- Allowed points: Where does the defense allow the most points? Are they bad at the rim? Bad against the 3?
- Types of players: Which types of players are the most efficient against this defense?
4) Player Profile
- Points: Where and how does this player score their points?
- Competition: How has this player performed against similar types of teams?
- Season averages: Is this line way below/above the players season average? Why?
- Recency bias: How has this player played recently? Coming off an injury?
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Profitable Parlays
As you probably read in section 5, we are not fans of parlays. With that being said, here's a type of parlay we like to make. The Wong Teaser is the safest option when it comes to combining 2 teams on a bet slip.
This strategy originates from a man named Stanford Wong, author of the book Sharp Sports Betting. In the book, he suggests that because a vast majority of games finish with a point difference of between 3 and 7, you should add a 6 point "tease" to any 2 teams that would cover their spread if they won by 3 or more or lost by 7 or less.
A) Wong teaser (favorite/underdog):
Team (A): -7.5 or -8.5 (add 6 pt tease) → -1.5 or -2.5
Team (B): +1.5 or +2.5 (add 6pt tease) → +7.5 or +8.5
B) Wong teaser (2 underdogs):
Team (A): +1.5 or +2.5 (add 6pt tease) → +7.5 or +8.5
Team (B): +1.5 or +2.5 (add 6pt tease) → +7.5 or +8.5
C) Wong teaser (2 favorites):
Team (A): -7.5 or -8.5 (add 6 pt tease) → -1.5 or -2.5
Team (B): -7.5 or -8.5 (add 6 pt tease) → -1.5 or -2.5
*Odds are between -110 to -120 after you combine 2 teams that fit any of the examples*
In the first example, you are covered if team A wins by 3 or more points. If you only bet the original line, you were not covered. For team B, you are covered if they lose by up to 8 points. If you only bet their original line, you were not covered.
Taking both of the original lines means placing 2 bets at -110. Since both bets have an implied odds of 52.4%, you should theoretically only win 1 of the bets. Combining them in a 6pt teaser, not only gives you a much higher chance of each bet winning, but it gives you the same line odds for 1 bet. You should be able to get most Wong teasers for between -110 and -120.