2025 Fantasy Football Rankings: The 5 Biggest Gaps Between ADP and Vegas Projections

Every fantasy football league has "that guy" — the one who reaches three rounds too early because they’re drafting off hype, not data.

If you're using ESPN fantasy football rankings or just scrolling Yahoo fantasy football mock drafts, you're likely missing out on one of the most accurate, market-driven tools available today: Vegas-backed projections.

At The Betting Insider, our 2025 cheat sheet is powered by NFL betting markets, not opinions. Here's a breakdown of the biggest gaps between average draft position (ADP) and our top 10 fantasy football player projections — and how to dominate your league because of them.

1. Christian McCaffrey — Overdrafted in ESPN & Yahoo Fantasy

• ESPN/Yahoo ADP: 7th overall
• Projected Fantasy Rank: 10th (261.4 pts)
• Injury Risk: High
• Projected Missed Games: 3

Christian McCaffrey is still a top fantasy football name — especially in ESPN fantasy drafts — but his workload, injury history, and 3 projected missed games drop him in our rankings. While most platforms rank him in the top five, our NFL fantasy football projections show safer, higher-output players available earlier.

2. Malik Nabers — The Ultimate Sleeper Pick

• ADP: Outside Top 10
• Projected Fantasy Rank: 7th (271.0 pts)
• Receiving Yards O/U: 1150.5
• Receptions O/U: 110.29

Nabers is the exact type of fantasy football sleeper smart drafters chase. He doesn’t appear in most early mock drafts, but Vegas thinks he’s a target monster with WR1 upside. If you play on platforms like Underdog Fantasy, where WR volume is king, Nabers could win leagues.

3. Ashton Jeanty — Massive Reach

• Yahoo ADP: 10th overall
• Vegas Rank: Outside Top 10
• NFL Fantasy Outlook: Unknown

Jeanty is popular in early dynasty rookie rankings, but in redraft formats? He’s not even inside our top 20. It’s one of the most drastic differences across any fantasy football app or ESPN fantasy football mock draft. Draft with caution — especially if you're playing for real money in fantasy football leagues like FFPC or CBS Sports Fantasy.

4. Derrick Henry — A Value in Every Fantasy Format

• ADP: Outside Top 10
• Projected Rank: 9th (262.3 pts)
• Projected Rushing Yards: 1325.5
• Injury Risk: None

Fantasy analysts may be fading Henry, but NFL fantasy rankings powered by the betting market aren't. He’s tied for the most projected TDs among RBs and comes with zero injury risk. He’s criminally undervalued in nearly every fantasy football draft kit — including ESPN fantasy.

5. Justin Jefferson — Great, But Risky

• ADP: 4th overall
• Projected Rank: 3rd (279.9 pts)
• Injury Risk: High
• Games Missed: 2

Jefferson is a top WR in NFL.com fantasy football and Rotoworld NFL rankings, but our model highlights real concerns. He remains elite, but the projected missed games and elevated injury risk make him less of a lock in Week 1 fantasy rankings than most expect.

Bonus: Ja’Marr Chase — The One Player Everyone Agrees On

• ADP: 1st
• Projected Rank: 1st (303.4 pts)
• Receptions: 108.86
• Receiving Yards: 1300.5

He’s WR1 in almost every platform — Yahoo, ESPN, CBS Sports, NFL Fantasy, and FantasyPros alike. The sportsbooks agree. Chase is the rare case where ADP, fantasy football player rankings, and Vegas models all line up.

Final Thoughts

In a landscape filled with bias, our fantasy football projections use Vegas betting markets — not just opinions — to guide your draft. If you're preparing for a fantasy football mock draft, finalizing your fantasy football draft strategy, or looking for best fantasy football picks, use projections that reflect actual sharp money.

This isn’t just fantasy. This is real-edge fantasy.