Christian McCaffrey: The Biggest Fantasy Football Trap of 2025?

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According to ESPN fantasy football rankings, McCaffrey is the 7th overall pick, projected to deliver 1,800 total yards, 72 receptions, and 12 touchdowns — which would total a whopping 327 fantasy points in full PPR scoring.

But here’s the problem:

The Vegas sportsbooks — the same ones that set lines backed by billions in betting dollars — disagree. And they’re not off by a little.

The Sportsbook Reality Check

Our Vegas-backed fantasy football projections — powered by betting lines, prop markets, and real-time injury risk models — paint a very different picture.

According to the sportsbooks:

• Yards from scrimmage: 1,450
• Receptions: 50
• Touchdowns: 11
• Total projected fantasy points: 261.4
• Overall fantasy rank: 10th

That’s a 66-point difference between ESPN fantasy football projections and what the NFL betting markets are expecting.

If you’re drafting McCaffrey in the top five based on Yahoo fantasy football mock drafts or ESPN fantasy draft kits, you could be overpaying by an entire tier — and costing yourself a shot at more efficient picks like Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, or even Derrick Henry, who comes at a discount in most drafts but ranks higher in our model.

What Causes the Gap?

Fantasy football sites like ESPN Fantasy, CBS Fantasy Football, and NFL.com Fantasy often lean on team beat reports, historical averages, or best-case scenarios. In contrast, sportsbooks build lines based on:

• Injury models
• Real-time player usage trends
• Projected game scripts
• Offensive line matchups
• Betting volume from professional sharps

McCaffrey, for example, is flagged with a high injury risk, and Vegas projects him to miss up to 3 games in 2025 — a major factor most mainstream fantasy football projections fail to bake in.

Should You Avoid McCaffrey in Fantasy Football Leagues?

Not necessarily — but you shouldn’t blindly trust ESPN or Yahoo fantasy football rankings, either.

In high-stakes fantasy football formats (FFPC, Underdog, CBS Sports Fantasy), every edge matters. And when sportsbooks rank McCaffrey lower than most fantasy football apps, you have to ask yourself: are you drafting the player… or the name?

The Takeaway

Christian McCaffrey is still an elite back — but not worth a top-5 pick in most formats if you’re going by Vegas consensus.

This is just one of many discrepancies we’ve found between fantasy football mock drafts and sportsbook-based projections. Want the full rankings list with all the hidden traps and sleeper picks?

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