Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Rays vs Jays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 28)
Last updated: September 28, 2025Game Time: 9/28, 03:07PM
Matchup Setup
Today's matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays promises to be a compelling clash with Toronto entering as the clear favorite. DraftKings lists the Blue Jays at -200, with the Rays as +162 underdogs. Notably, 65% of the money is backing Toronto, highlighting the betting public's confidence in the home team.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Ian Seymour vs Kevin Gausman
Ian Seymour (TB):
Ian Seymour brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound: Changeup (33% usage, 83.6 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage, 91.7 mph), Cutter (21% usage, 88.4 mph), Sweeper (8% usage, 81.6 mph), Sinker (6% usage, 90.7 mph), and Curveball (1% usage, 74.5 mph). Seymour can be described as a pitch-mix artist, relying on a variety of pitches to keep hitters off balance. The Toronto lineup, however, has been effective against styles like his, averaging .258 on the season with a projected xBA of .261 against Seymour's pitch mix.
Kevin Gausman (TOR):
Kevin Gausman counters with a powerful and focused arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.5 mph), Splitter (37% usage, 84.9 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 83.1 mph). Gausman is a velocity-heavy pitcher who effectively uses his fastball and splitter to induce whiffs. The Rays lineup, averaging .261 on the season, projects a slightly lower .253 xBA against Gausman’s pitches.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Rays vs Gausman:
The Rays lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .253 against Gausman’s arsenal. Among the key performers:
- Yandy Díaz: Season BA .250 → xBA vs Gausman .277 (+27 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 26.1% (+3.6%)
- Chandler Simpson: Season BA .295 → xBA vs Gausman .271 (-23 points), Season K% 9.8% → Arsenal K% 17.5% (+7.7%)
For the Blue Jays vs Seymour:
The Blue Jays lineup averages .258 this season and projects to .261 against Seymour’s pitches. Key performers include:
- Alejandro Kirk: Season BA .278 → xBA vs Seymour .317 (+39 points), Season K% 11.6% → Arsenal K% 11.7% (+0.1%)
- Davis Schneider: Season BA .235 → xBA vs Seymour .181 (-54 points), Season K% 26.2% → Arsenal K% 29.6% (+3.4%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Rays' projected K-rate is 26.1% vs Gausman — up 4.7% from their 21.3% season average, indicating potential value in strikeout props.
- The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 19.5% vs Seymour — up 0.6% from their 18.9% season average, suggesting minimal strikeout prop opportunities.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Alejandro Kirk (.278 → .317, +39 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER - Rays' K-rate jumps to 26.1% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Yandy Díaz shows a strong batting advantage against Gausman, with a notable increase in xBA.
- Alejandro Kirk stands out as a prop opportunity against Seymour.
- Kevin Gausman’s arsenal poses a significant strikeout threat to the Rays, aligning with potential K prop bets.
- The unknown umpire assignment adds a layer of uncertainty to betting decisions.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rays vs Jays game? A: Alejandro Kirk meets our strict betting criteria with a significant increase in projected batting average.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leaving prop volatility a concern.
Q: What time is the Rays vs Jays game? A: 9/28, 03:07PM
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