Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
DET vs BOS: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 28)
Last updated: September 28, 2025Game Time: TBD
Today's Setup
In today's matchup, the Detroit Tigers head to Boston to face the Red Sox in what promises to be a compelling game. Despite the absence of available betting odds, the key focus will be on the starting pitchers as both teams are looking to leverage their strengths on the mound.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Chris Paddack vs Lucas Giolito
Chris Paddack (DET):
Chris Paddack brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 93.7 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 84.5 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.2 mph), Slider (9% usage, 85.6 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 88.7 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 93.6 mph). Paddack is a pitch-mix artist with a focus on velocity and movement to keep hitters off balance. The Red Sox lineup has averaged .265 this season with a projected xBA of .266 against Paddack's mix, indicating a slight edge in favor of the Boston hitters.
Lucas Giolito (BOS):
Lucas Giolito counters with his own blend of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage, 93.3 mph), Slider (26% usage, 86.0 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 81.7 mph), and Curveball (3% usage, 78.6 mph). Giolito relies on his fastball and slider combination to suppress opposing offenses. The Tigers lineup averages .255 this season but projects a slightly lower .254 xBA against Giolito's arsenal, suggesting a potential advantage for Giolito on the mound.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Detroit vs Lucas Giolito:
- The Tigers lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .254 vs Giolito's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Dillon Dingler: Season BA .278 → xBA vs arsenal .315 (+37 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.2% (+1.7%)
- Biggest Decrease: Jahmai Jones: Season BA .287 → xBA vs arsenal .202 (-85 points), Season K% 21.3% → Arsenal K% 42.6% (+21.3%)
For Boston vs Chris Paddack:
- The Red Sox lineup averages .265 this season and projects to .266 vs Paddack's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Carlos Narváez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .292 (+42 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 13.1% (-9.4%)
- Biggest Decrease: Romy Gonzalez: Season BA .305 → xBA vs arsenal .281 (-24 points), Season K% 23.8% → Arsenal K% 23.6% (-0.2%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Tigers' projected K-rate is 25.5% vs Giolito — up 1.4% from their 24.1% season average.
- The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 20.5% vs Paddack — down 1.0% from their 21.5% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Dillon Dingler (.278 → .315, +37 points) meets betting lean criteria!
📢 Prop Alert: Carlos Narváez (.250 → .292, +42 points) meets betting lean criteria!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Dillon Dingler and Carlos Narváez offer strong batting prop opportunities with significant increases in expected performance.
- Both pitchers have potential strikeout advantages, but Giolito faces a slightly more strikeout-prone Tigers lineup.
- Umpire assignment remains TBA, adding uncertainty to betting decisions.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the DET vs BOS game? A: Dillon Dingler and Carlos Narváez meet our strict betting criteria with notable increases in expected batting averages.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so prop volatility is a concern.
Q: What time is the DET vs BOS game? A: Game time is TBD.
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