September 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Pirates vs Braves: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 28)

Last updated: September 28, 2025

Game Time: 9/28, 03:15PM

Matchup Setup

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against the Atlanta Braves in a crucial late-season matchup. The Braves enter as the -208 favorites according to DraftKings, while the Pirates are underdogs at +168, with 53% of the money surprisingly backing Pittsburgh. This game features intriguing pitching matchups and potential prop opportunities.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Johan Oviedo vs Charlie Morton

Johan Oviedo (PIT):

Oviedo's arsenal is a blend of power and finesse: Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 95.5 mph), Slider (32% usage, 86.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 77.8 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 95.2 mph), and Changeup (5% usage, 88.3 mph). His approach relies heavily on velocity and a diverse pitch mix. The Braves' lineup averages .251 this season with a projected xBA of .244 against Oviedo's offerings, indicating a slightly tougher matchup for Atlanta's hitters.

Charlie Morton (ATL):

Morton showcases a more traditional mix: Curveball (38% usage, 81.4 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 94.2 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 94.0 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 87.5 mph), and Cutter (9% usage, 88.0 mph). Known for his breaking pitches, Morton poses a challenge for the Pirates, who average .247 this season but project to a slightly lower .244 against his arsenal.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Pirates vs Morton: The Pirates lineup, with a season average of .247, projects to .244 against Morton's arsenal. Jared Triolo shows the biggest increase in expected performance: Season BA .229 → xBA vs arsenal .273 (+44 points), Season K% 19.9% → Arsenal K% 17.9% (-2.0%). Conversely, Oneil Cruz faces the biggest challenge: Season BA .264 → xBA vs arsenal .222 (-42 points), Season K% 25.9% → Arsenal K% 29.9% (+4.0%).

For Braves vs Oviedo: The Braves lineup, averaging .251, is expected to drop to a .244 xBA against Oviedo. II Harris is the standout with a boost: Season BA .248 → xBA vs arsenal .286 (+38 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 22.1% (+2.0%). Ha-Seong Kim encounters the most difficulty: Season BA .280 → xBA vs arsenal .237 (-43 points), Season K% 30.7% → Arsenal K% 25.9% (-4.8%).

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Pirates: The Pirates' projected K-rate is 25.0% vs Morton — up 3.1% from their 21.9% season average, indicating potential value in strikeout props.

For the Braves: The Braves' projected K-rate is 24.1% vs Oviedo — up 1.9% from their 22.2% season average, suggesting moderate strikeout potential.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jared Triolo (.229 → .273, +44 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Johan Oviedo strikeout OVER - Braves' K-rate jumps to 24.1% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jared Triolo's projected xBA increase suggests strong batting prop value.
Johan Oviedo's matchup indicates potential for higher strikeouts against the Braves.
Umpire assignment is pending, adding uncertainty to betting props.
Overall, focus on Triolo's hitting prop and Oviedo's strikeout potential for value.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Braves game? A: Jared Triolo offers the best betting prop opportunity with a significant xBA boost against Morton's arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leading to prop volatility concerns.

Q: What time is the Pirates vs Braves game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/28, 03:15PM.

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