September 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Cardinals vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 28)

Last updated: September 28, 2025

Game Time: 9/28, 03:20PM

Today's Setup

The St. Louis Cardinals will face the Chicago Cubs in a late September matchup at Wrigley Field, with the Cubs being favored at −169 on DraftKings. The Cardinals are +138 underdogs with 61% of the money backing them, suggesting a potential upset in the eyes of the bettors.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Leahy vs Javier Assad

Kyle Leahy (STL):

Kyle Leahy brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam (30% usage, 95.4 mph), Slider (21% usage, 91.1 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 83.5 mph), Sweeper (14% usage, 86.8 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 90.3 mph), Sinker (7% usage, 95.3 mph). Leahy is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a varied pitch mix that can keep hitters off balance. The Cubs lineup has averaged .237 this season with a projected xBA of .237 against Leahy's offerings, indicating a potential for Leahy to control the game if he hits his spots.

Javier Assad (CHC):

Javier Assad relies on his Sinker (40% usage, 92.2 mph) and Cutter (20% usage, 89.1 mph) to induce ground balls, complemented by a Sweeper (14% usage, 81.0 mph) and a mix of other pitches. The Cardinals lineup averages .2449 this season but projects to .2499 against Assad's arsenal, suggesting they might have a slight edge in contact quality.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For STL vs Javier Assad:

The Cardinals lineup averages .2449 this season but projects to .2499 vs Assad's arsenal.
Nolan Arenado: Season BA .237 → xBA vs Assad’s arsenal .280 (+43 points), Season K% 11.2% → Arsenal K% 7.4% (−3.8%)
Iván Herrera: Season BA .286 → xBA vs Assad's arsenal .253 (−33 points), Season K% 18.8% → Arsenal K% 17.5% (−1.3%)

For CHC vs Kyle Leahy:

The Cubs lineup averages .2543 this season but projects to .237 vs Leahy's arsenal.
Ian Happ: Season BA .243 → xBA vs Leahy’s arsenal .269 (+26 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 24.7% (+1.9%)
Moisés Ballesteros: Season BA .296 → xBA vs Leahy’s arsenal .233 (−63 points), Season K% 17.5% → Arsenal K% 30.2% (+12.7%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 19.3% vs Assad — down 3.0% from their 22.3% season average, suggesting a lower strikeout potential.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.2% vs Leahy — up 4.7% from their 19.4% season average, indicating a heightened strikeout risk.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Nolan Arenado (.237 → .280, +43 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Kyle Leahy strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.2% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Nolan Arenado shows a significant batting advantage against Assad's arsenal, making him a strong candidate for hitting props.
Kyle Leahy could exploit the Cubs' increased strikeout vulnerability, making his strikeout prop an intriguing option.
Umpire Impact is currently unknown, adding an element of unpredictability to tonight's pitching and hitting props.
Betting Recommendation: Lean towards pitcher props for Leahy due to the Cubs' elevated strikeout projection.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the STL vs CHC game? A: Nolan Arenado stands out with a significant statistical edge against Assad’s arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, so we cannot assess its impact on the game.

Q: What time is the STL vs CHC game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/28 at 03:20PM.

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