September 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Reds vs Brewers: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 28)

Last updated: September 28, 2025

Game Time: 9/28, 03:10PM

Brief Intro

The Cincinnati Reds face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in an intriguing MLB matchup. According to DraftKings, the Brewers are favorites with a line of -150, while the Reds are underdogs at +123. Despite Cincinnati being the underdog, 69% of the betting money is backing them, indicating strong public sentiment.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Brady Singer vs Freddy Peralta

Brady Singer (CIN):

Singer relies on a diverse pitch arsenal: Sinker (41% usage, 92.2 mph), Slider (30% usage, 82.6 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage, 91.3 mph), Cutter (10% usage, 87.4 mph), and Sweeper (9% usage, 81.6 mph). As a pitcher, Singer blends velocity with movement, relying on his sinker and slider to generate groundballs and swings-and-misses. The Brewers lineup has an average of .260 this season and projects a .264 xBA against Singer's offerings, suggesting they could find success against his pitch mix.

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Peralta's arsenal includes a Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.9 mph), and Slider (10% usage, 83.7 mph). With a fastball-heavy approach, Peralta challenges hitters with velocity and off-speed contrasts. The Reds lineup averages .258 this season but projects a .234 xBA against Peralta's pitch mix, indicating potential struggles.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Reds vs Freddy Peralta: The Reds lineup has a seasonal average of .258 but projects to a .234 xBA against Peralta. Notably:

Miguel Andujar: Season BA .322 → xBA vs arsenal .301 (-21 points), Season K% 14.2% → Arsenal K% 10.5% (-3.7%)

For the Brewers vs Brady Singer: The Brewers lineup averages .261 this season and projects to a .264 xBA against Singer. Key performers include:

Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .253 → xBA vs arsenal .284 (+31 points), Season K% 17.6% → Arsenal K% 17.0% (-0.6%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Reds: The Reds' projected K-rate is 25.1% vs Freddy Peralta, up 3.0% from their 22.1% season average. This increase suggests a potential for higher strikeouts.

For the Brewers: The Brewers' projected K-rate is 17.9% vs Brady Singer, down 0.9% from their 18.8% season average, indicating a propensity for more contact.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.253 → .284, +31 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Reds' K-rate jumps to 25.1% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Andrew Vaughn is positioned to outperform against Brady Singer, meeting our batting lean criteria.
Freddy Peralta may capitalize on the Reds' elevated strikeout tendencies, suggesting an over on strikeout props.
The lack of umpire data introduces volatility in prop bets, necessitating cautious wagering.
Given the statistical edges, focus on Vaughn's batting prop and Peralta's strikeout potential.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Reds vs Brewers game? A: Andrew Vaughn meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .284 against Brady Singer.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leading to uncertainty in prop impacts.

Q: What time is the Reds vs Brewers game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/28 at 03:10PM.

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