September 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

AZ vs SD: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 28)

Last updated: September 28, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Game Overview

The Arizona Diamondbacks (AZ) are set to face the San Diego Padres (SD) in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. While the betting odds are currently unavailable, this game features a compelling pitcher duel that could tip the scales in either direction.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Brandon Pfaadt vs JP Sears

Brandon Pfaadt (AZ):

Brandon Pfaadt brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound, including a Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage, 93.6 mph), Sinker (23% usage, 93.1 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 84.8 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 87.3 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 82.1 mph), and Cutter (9% usage, 89.9 mph). With a balanced mix of velocity and movement, Pfaadt can be classified as a pitch-mix artist. The SD lineup averages .273 this season with a projected xBA of .267 against Pfaadt's arsenal.

JP Sears (SD):

JP Sears counters with his own blend of pitches: a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 92.2 mph), Sweeper (27% usage, 79.2 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 83.4 mph), Slider (7% usage, 80.7 mph), Sinker (6% usage, 90.5 mph), and Curveball (4% usage, 79.5 mph). Sears relies heavily on his fastball and sweeping breaking pitches to keep hitters off balance. The AZ lineup averages .233 this season but projects to .251 against Sears' offerings.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For AZ vs JP Sears: The AZ lineup averages .233 this season but projects to .251 against JP Sears' arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Jordan Lawlar: Season BA .161 → xBA vs arsenal .224 (+63 points), Season K% 34.8% → Arsenal K% 32.8% (-2.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Ketel Marte: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .255 (-28 points), Season K% 14.8% → Arsenal K% 24.3% (+9.5%)

For SD vs Brandon Pfaadt: The SD lineup averages .273 this season but projects to .267 against Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Gavin Sheets: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .287 (+33 points), Season K% 19.8% → Arsenal K% 18.0% (-1.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Bryce Johnson: Season BA .351 → xBA vs arsenal .251 (-100 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 15.8% (-7.7%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The AZ's projected K-rate is 24.2% vs JP Sears — up 1.7% from their 22.5% season average.
The SD's projected K-rate is 16.6% vs Brandon Pfaadt — down 1.5% from their 18.1% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jordan Lawlar (.161 → .224, +63 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant strikeout prop criteria met this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jordan Lawlar is the standout batting prop candidate with a significant increase in projected xBA.
No strong strikeout prop opportunities align with our betting criteria.
Umpire assignment is yet to be announced, adding an element of unpredictability.
Overall, the game offers interesting batting prop angles, particularly with Jordan Lawlar's favorable matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the AZ vs SD game? A: Jordan Lawlar stands out with a significant boost in his projected batting average against JP Sears.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, adding uncertainty to this aspect.

Q: What time is the AZ vs SD game? A: Game time is TBD.

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