September 28, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Mets vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 28)

Last updated: September 28, 2025

Game Time: 9/28, 03:10PM

Matchup Setup

The New York Mets face off against the Miami Marlins in a crucial matchup at LoanDepot Park. With the Mets as a −123 favorite and the Marlins as a +101 underdog, 91% of the betting money is backing the Mets, according to DraftKings. The game promises an intriguing battle of pitching styles, with Sean Manaea taking the mound for the Mets against Edward Cabrera for the Marlins.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea vs Edward Cabrera

Sean Manaea (NYM):

Manaea features a diverse arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (61% usage, 91.7 mph), Sweeper (33% usage, 77.7 mph), Changeup (6% usage, 84.7 mph), and a rarely used Sinker (1% usage, 91.7 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Manaea relies heavily on his fastball and sweeper to keep hitters off balance. The Marlins lineup averages .257 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Manaea's offerings.

Edward Cabrera (MIA):

Cabrera counters with a power-driven arsenal: Changeup (26% usage, 94.2 mph), Curveball (23% usage, 83.9 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 96.8 mph), Slider (18% usage, 88.5 mph), and a Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage, 97.0 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy approach, Cabrera will challenge the Mets' hitters with his high-powered pitches. The Mets lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .262 against Cabrera's arsenal.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Mets vs Edward Cabrera:

The Mets lineup averages .258 this season and projects to .262 against Cabrera's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Juan Soto: Season BA .265 → xBA vs arsenal .289 (+24 points), Season K% 19.3% → Arsenal K% 21.4% (+2.1%)
Biggest Decrease: Starling Marte: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .278 (-5 points), Season K% 14.8% → Arsenal K% 21.4% (+6.6%)

For the Marlins vs Sean Manaea:

The Marlins lineup averages .257 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Manaea's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Agustín Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .309 (+59 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.6% (-5.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Otto Lopez: Season BA .248 → xBA vs arsenal .215 (-33 points), Season K% 13.7% → Arsenal K% 25.0% (+11.3%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Mets' projected K-rate is 21.2% vs Cabrera — up 2.2% from their 19.0% season average.
The Marlins' projected K-rate is 24.6% vs Manaea — up 4.0% from their 20.6% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate:

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Agustín Ramírez (.250 → .309, +59 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Sean Manaea strikeout OVER - Marlins' K-rate jumps to 24.6% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Player Advantage: Agustín Ramírez shows a strong batting upside against Manaea's arsenal.
Pitcher Prop Opportunity: Lean towards the OVER on Manaea's strikeouts due to Marlins' elevated K-rate.
Umpire Uncertainty: Lack of umpire data introduces volatility in prop bets.
Betting Recommendation: Strong lean on Sean Manaea's strikeout props and Agustín Ramírez's batting prop.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mets vs Marlins game? A: Agustín Ramírez meets our strict betting criteria for a strong batting prop.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, which adds uncertainty to the prop markets.

Q: What time is the Mets vs Marlins game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/28, 03:10PM.

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