October 5, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Yankees vs Jays: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 05)

Last updated: October 05, 2025

Game Time: 10/5, 04:08PM

Game Preview

The New York Yankees are set to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays, with the Yankees coming in as the favorites. DraftKings lists the Yankees at -157 and the Blue Jays at +129, with 70% of the betting money backing the Yankees. With both teams looking to end their seasons on a high note, this matchup promises intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Luis Gil vs Kevin Gausman

Luis Gil (NYY):

Luis Gil brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with a pitch mix featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 95.4 mph), Slider (35% usage, 87.5 mph), Splitter (20% usage, 81.7 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 82.1 mph), and Sinker (1% usage, 95.6 mph). Gil is a velocity-heavy pitcher who relies on his fastball-slider combination to generate swings and misses. The Blue Jays lineup averages .258 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Gil's repertoire.

Kevin Gausman (TOR):

Kevin Gausman counters with a Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.5 mph), Splitter (37% usage, 84.9 mph), Slider (9% usage, 83.2 mph), and a rarely used Sinker. Gausman is known for his effective use of the splitter to keep hitters off balance. The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season but projects a lower .222 xBA against Gausman's mix.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Yankees vs Kevin Gausman: The Yankees lineup season average is .254, projecting to .222 against Gausman's arsenal.

Biggest Decrease: Aaron Judge: Season BA .331 → xBA vs arsenal .231 (-100 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 39.6% (+16.0%)

For Blue Jays vs Luis Gil: The Blue Jays lineup season average is .259, projecting to .254 against Gil's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .292 → xBA vs arsenal .314 (+22 points), Season K% 13.8% → Arsenal K% 15.6% (+1.8%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Yankees' projected K-rate is 29.4% vs Gausman — up 3.9% from their 25.5% season average.
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 21.5% vs Gil — up 3.0% from their 18.6% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Guerrero (.292 → .314, +22 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER - Yankees' K-rate jumps to 29.4% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Aaron Judge faces a significant challenge, with a predicted drop in performance against Gausman.
Jr. Guerrero exhibits potential for offensive success against Gil, meeting our prop criteria.
Kevin Gausman has a favorable matchup for strikeouts against the Yankees' lineup.
With no umpire data available, betting props may carry additional risk.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Jays game? A: Jr. Guerrero, with a notable projected performance increase against Luis Gil.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, adding to prop volatility.

Q: What time is the Yankees vs Jays game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/5, 04:08PM.

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