Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Dodgers vs Phillies: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 04)
Last updated: October 04, 2025Game Time: 10/4, 06:38PM
Game Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Philadelphia to face off against the Phillies in a matchup that features intriguing pitching duels and strategic batting lineups. DraftKings positions the Phillies as a -123 favorite, with the Dodgers as a slight +101 underdog. Notably, 52% of the betting money is favoring the Phillies.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD):
Ohtani's arsenal is diverse and velocity-heavy: Four-Seam (39% usage, 98.4 mph), Sweeper (23% usage, 85.0 mph), Slider (11% usage, 88.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 78.6 mph), Sinker (7% usage, 96.2 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 93.9 mph), Splitter (5% usage, 90.3 mph). As a power pitcher, Ohtani relies on speed and movement to dominate hitters. The Phillies lineup averages .264 this season with a projected xBA of .258 against Ohtani’s repertoire.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI):
Sánchez brings a more sinker-oriented approach: Sinker (46% usage, 95.4 mph), Changeup (37% usage, 86.3 mph), Slider (17% usage, 85.7 mph). His mix of pitches aims to induce ground balls and weak contact. The Dodgers lineup averages .268 this season but projects to a lower .260 xBA against Sánchez’s arsenal.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Dodgers vs Cristopher Sánchez:
- The Dodgers lineup averages .268 this season but projects to .260 vs Sánchez’s arsenal.
- Tommy Edman stands out with a BA increase: Season BA .225 → xBA vs arsenal .287 (+62 points), Season K% 16.2% → Arsenal K% 11.8% (-4.4%).
For the Phillies vs Shohei Ohtani:
- The Phillies lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .258 vs Ohtani’s arsenal.
- Bryce Harper shows a BA increase: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .289 (+28 points), Season K% 20.9% → Arsenal K% 22.4% (+1.5%).
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 18.8% vs Sánchez — up 1.4% from their 17.4% season average.
- The Phillies' projected K-rate is 23.5% vs Ohtani — up 2.0% from their 21.5% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Tommy Edman (.225 → .287, +62 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Shohei Ohtani strikeout OVER - Phillies' K-rate jumps to 23.5% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Tommy Edman has a notable batting advantage against Sánchez with a significant boost in xBA.
- Shohei Ohtani is projected to exploit the Phillies' increased strikeout rate, making his strikeout prop attractive.
- Umpire assignment is unknown, creating uncertainty for total strikeout and walk props.
- Betting recommendation leans towards individual player props over broader team bets due to lineup-specific advantages.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Phillies game? A: Tommy Edman showcases a strong batting advantage, making him a prime candidate for a prop bet.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Phillies game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/4, 06:38PM.
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