Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Cubs vs Brewers: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 04)
Last updated: October 04, 2025Game Time: 10/4, 02:08PM
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs head to Milwaukee to face off against the Brewers in a pivotal matchup. With the Brewers favored at -158 on DraftKings and the Cubs as +129 underdogs, 58% of the public money is currently backing Milwaukee. This game will feature a critical pitcher duel that could dictate the series' outcome.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea vs Freddy Peralta
Colin Rea (CHC):
Colin Rea boasts a diverse arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 93.8 mph), Splitter (12% usage, 87.4 mph), Slider (10% usage, 85.2 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 93.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.3 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 82.8 mph), and Cutter (7% usage, 88.2 mph). Rea's variety makes him a pitch-mix artist, though not overwhelmingly velocity-heavy. The Brewers' lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .258 vs Rea’s mixed-speed arsenal.Freddy Peralta (MIL):
Peralta primarily relies on his powerful Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), supplemented by a Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph). He is a velocity-heavy pitcher who excels at overpowering hitters. The Cubs' lineup, hitting .253 this season, projects a subtle dip to .248 against Peralta's fastball-centric approach.Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Cubs vs Freddy Peralta:
- The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .248 vs Freddy Peralta's arsenal.
- Michael Busch sees the biggest increase: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+28 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.4% (+1.9%).
- Kyle Tucker experiences the biggest decrease: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%).
For Brewers vs Colin Rea:
- The Brewers lineup averages .260 this season with a projected xBA of .258 vs Colin Rea's arsenal.
- Andrew Vaughn shows improvement: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .283 (+29 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.9% (-1.0%).
- Sal Frelick encounters a decrease: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (-30 points), Season K% 13.5% → Arsenal K% 14.3% (+0.8%).
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Freddy Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average.
- The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.4% vs Colin Rea — up 1.5% from their 18.9% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Michael Busch (.261 → .290, +28 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Michael Busch presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a projected xBA boost against Peralta's arsenal.
- Freddy Peralta's increased strikeout potential against the Cubs suggests an OVER strikeout prop.
- With no umpire data, betting on pitching and batting props should be approached cautiously.
- Overall, Milwaukee's pitching edge could play a decisive role in the outcome.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Brewers game? A: Michael Busch stands out with a significant xBA increase against Peralta, making him a prop alert candidate.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced.
Q: What time is the Cubs vs Brewers game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/4, 02:08PM.
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