October 4, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Yankees vs Jays: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 04)

Last updated: October 04, 2025

Game Time: 10/4, 04:08PM

Game Preview

The New York Yankees face off against the Toronto Blue Jays in a high-stakes matchup. The Blue Jays are favored at -126 on DraftKings, while the Yankees come in as +104 underdogs. Notably, 66% of the money is backing the New York Yankees, highlighting potential public confidence in an upset.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Luis Gil vs Kevin Gausman

Luis Gil (NYY):

Luis Gil brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with a velocity-heavy approach. His pitch mix includes a Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 95.4 mph), Slider (35% usage, 87.5 mph), Splitter (20% usage, 81.7 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 82.1 mph), and a rarely used Sinker (1% usage, 95.6 mph). The Toronto lineup averages .258 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Gil's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for Gil.

Kevin Gausman (TOR):

Kevin Gausman utilizes a focused pitch repertoire, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.5 mph), Splitter (37% usage, 84.9 mph), Slider (9% usage, 83.2 mph), and a Sinker (0% usage, 93.7 mph). The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season but projects to a lower .222 against Gausman's pitches, showing Gausman's potential to dominate.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For NYY vs Kevin Gausman: The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .222 against Gausman's arsenal.

Aaron Judge: Season BA .331 → xBA vs arsenal .231 (-100 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 39.6% (+16.0%)

For TOR vs Luis Gil: The Blue Jays lineup averages .259 this season and projects to .254 against Gil's arsenal.

Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .292 → xBA vs arsenal .314 (+22 points), Season K% 13.8% → Arsenal K% 15.6% (+1.8%)
George Springer: Season BA .309 → xBA vs arsenal .248 (-61 points), Season K% 18.9% → Arsenal K% 27.8% (+8.9%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Yankees' projected K-rate is 29.4% vs Gausman — up 3.9% from their 25.5% season average.
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 21.5% vs Gil — up 2.9% from their 18.6% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Guerrero (.292 → .314, +22 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER - Yankees' K-rate jumps to 29.4% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Kevin Gausman offers a significant pitching edge against the Yankees lineup, with a potential for higher strikeouts.
Jr. Guerrero is positioned for a strong performance against Luis Gil's arsenal, meeting prop betting criteria.
Umpire assignment is TBA, highlighting some uncertainty in the game flow and prop stability.
Overall, strong lean on Gausman's strikeout potential and Guerrero's hitting advantage.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Jays game? A: Jr. Guerrero is the standout prop candidate with a projected xBA boost against Gil.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so current tendencies cannot be assessed.

Q: What time is the Yankees vs Jays game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/4, 04:08PM.

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