October 3, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Dodgers vs Phillies: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 03)

Last updated: October 03, 2025

Game Time: 10/4, 06:38PM

Game Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies in a crucial matchup. DraftKings lists the Phillies as -127 favorites, while the Dodgers are +105 underdogs, with a notable 53% of the money backing the Dodgers. This game showcases a compelling pitcher duel and intriguing lineup matchups that could influence the betting landscape.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)

Shohei Ohtani (LAD):

Ohtani brings a diverse arsenal featuring: Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 98.4 mph), Sweeper (23% usage, 85.0 mph), Slider (11% usage, 88.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 78.6 mph), Sinker (7% usage, 96.2 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 93.9 mph), and Splitter (5% usage, 90.3 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy approach, Ohtani's mix can make it challenging for batters to lock in. The Phillies lineup averages .264 this season with a projected xBA of .258 vs Ohtani's arsenal.

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI):

Sánchez counters with a repertoire that includes: Sinker (46% usage, 95.4 mph), Changeup (37% usage, 86.3 mph), and Slider (17% usage, 85.7 mph). He leans on his sinker-changeup combination to induce ground balls and manage contact. The Dodgers lineup averages .268 this season but projects a .260 xBA against Sánchez's arsenal.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Away Team vs Home Pitcher: The Dodgers lineup averages .268 this season but projects to .260 vs Sánchez's arsenal.

Tommy Edman: Season BA .225 → xBA vs arsenal .287 (+62 points)

For Home Team vs Away Pitcher: The Phillies lineup averages .264 but projects to .258 vs Ohtani's arsenal.

Bryce Harper: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .289 (+28 points)
Trea Turner: Season BA .304 → xBA vs arsenal .261 (-43 points)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 18.8% vs Sánchez — up 1.4% from their 17.4% season average.
The Phillies' projected K-rate is 23.5% vs Ohtani — up 2.0% from their 21.5% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Tommy Edman (.225 → .287, +62 points) meets betting lean criteria!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Tommy Edman stands out with a significant xBA increase, making him a strong batting prop candidate.
Both lineups show increased strikeout rates against opposing pitchers, suggesting potential value in K props.
Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding uncertainty to prop bets.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the LAD vs PHI game? A: Tommy Edman shows a notable xBA increase against Sánchez's arsenal, making him a top prop candidate.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so current tendencies are unknown.

Q: What time is the LAD vs PHI game? A: 10/4, 06:38PM

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