October 5, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Cubs vs Brewers: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 05)

Last updated: October 05, 2025

Game Time: 10/6, 09:08PM

Game Preview

The Chicago Cubs are set to clash with the Milwaukee Brewers in what promises to be a competitive matchup. With DraftKings listing the Brewers as -126 favorites and the Cubs as +104 underdogs, 63% of the betting money is backing Milwaukee. This game will feature intriguing pitcher and batter dynamics, making it a must-watch for baseball bettors.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea (CHC) vs Freddy Peralta (MIL)

Colin Rea (CHC):

Arsenal:

- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 93.8 mph) - Splitter (12% usage, 87.4 mph) - Slider (10% usage, 85.2 mph) - Sinker (10% usage, 93.1 mph) - Curveball (9% usage, 80.3 mph) - Sweeper (9% usage, 82.8 mph) - Cutter (7% usage, 88.2 mph)

Colin Rea is a versatile pitcher with a varied arsenal that relies heavily on his fastball. The Milwaukee lineup has a season average of .260 but projects slightly lower at .257 against Rea's mix, indicating a slight edge for the Cubs' pitcher.

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Arsenal:

- Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph) - Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph) - Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph) - Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph)

Freddy Peralta leans on his fastball to overpower hitters, complemented by a solid changeup. The Cubs lineup, which averages .253 on the season, projects to .248 against Peralta, suggesting a tough outing for Chicago's batters.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Cubs vs Freddy Peralta:

Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+28 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.4% (+1.9%)
Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%)

For Brewers vs Colin Rea:

Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .283 (+29 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.9% (-1.0%)
Sal Frelick: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (-30 points), Season K% 13.5% → Arsenal K% 14.3% (+0.8%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Cubs: Projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Peralta — up 4.3% from their 20.5% season average.
Brewers: Projected K-rate is 20.4% vs Rea — up 1.5% from their 18.9% season average.

The Cubs face increased strikeout risk against Peralta, suggesting potential value in strikeout props.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Michael Busch (.261 → .290, +28 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Michael Busch presents a strong batting advantage against Peralta's arsenal.
Freddy Peralta could hit the over on strikeouts given the Cubs' elevated K-rate.
The umpire assignment remains unknown, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Lean on Peralta's strikeout potential and Busch's batting edge for betting angles.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Brewers game? A: Michael Busch offers the best betting prop opportunity with a significant xBA increase.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, making it difficult to assess umpire influence.

Q: What time is the Cubs vs Brewers game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/6 at 09:08PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---