SD vs SF: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 13)

Last updated: August 13, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Today's Setup

As the San Diego Padres take on the San Francisco Giants, the pitching duel features intriguing matchups that could sway the betting lines. While specific odds are not available for this game, the focus will be on the effectiveness of the starting pitchers and how they match up against each lineup's tendencies.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Nick Pivetta vs Kai-Wei Teng

Nick Pivetta (SD):

Nick Pivetta brings a diverse arsenal to the mound:

Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 93.8 mph)
Curveball (23% usage, 79.0 mph)
Sweeper (17% usage, 81.7 mph)
Cutter (8% usage, 89.8 mph)
Sinker (3% usage, 93.8 mph)
Slider (1% usage, 83.1 mph)

Pivetta's approach leans on velocity and spin with a heavy reliance on his four-seamer and curveball. The Giants' lineup averages .255 this season with a projected xBA of .247 vs Pivetta's arsenal, indicating a slight disadvantage for them against his pitch mix.

Kai-Wei Teng (SF):

Kai-Wei Teng counters with a more balanced pitch distribution:

Curveball (25% usage, 82.5 mph)
Sweeper (25% usage, 84.1 mph)
Changeup (20% usage, 87.4 mph)
Four-Seam (19% usage, 93.4 mph)
Sinker (11% usage, 93.0 mph)

Teng's varied mix could challenge the Padres, who average .273 this season but project a lower .262 xBA against Teng's offerings.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For SD vs Kai-Wei Teng:

The Padres' lineup averages .273 this season but projects to .262 vs Teng's arsenal.
Xander Bogaerts sees the biggest decrease: Season BA .268 → xBA vs arsenal .240 (-28 points), Season K% 15.7% → Arsenal K% 20.5% (+4.8%).
Ryan O'Hearn experiences a moderate increase: Season BA .273 → xBA vs arsenal .288 (+15 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 21.2% (+3.3%).

For SF vs Nick Pivetta:

The Giants' lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .247 vs Pivetta's arsenal.
Christian Koss shows the biggest increase: Season BA .257 → xBA vs arsenal .303 (+46 points), Season K% 25.0% → Arsenal K% 25.2% (+0.2%).
Jung Lee faces the biggest decrease: Season BA .256 → xBA vs arsenal .203 (-53 points), Season K% 10.7% → Arsenal K% 18.9% (+8.2%).

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Padres:

The Padres' projected K-rate is 19.6% vs Teng — up 2.4% from their 17.3% season average.

For the Giants:

The Giants' projected K-rate is 25.3% vs Pivetta — up 2.6% from their 22.7% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Ramon De Jesus

Umpire boosts: +3% strikeouts, +8% walks
Classification: Mixed tendencies due to moderate increases in both strikeouts and walks.

Our Betting Take

Final Lean & Betting Takeaway

STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:

STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities

📢 Prop Alert: Christian Koss (.257 → .303, +46 points) meets betting lean criteria!

STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props

No team strikeout rates meet the threshold for a strikeout prop alert.

STEP 3: Report findings

With Christian Koss presenting a significant statistical edge, bettors may find value in his performance props. No pitcher strikeout props meet our betting criteria.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Christian Koss is a standout for batting props with a strong projected xBA increase.
No significant pitcher strikeout prop opportunities were identified.
Umpire Ramon De Jesus exhibits mixed tendencies, potentially affecting both pitchers and hitters.
Focus on individual player performance rather than team trends for this matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the SD vs SF game? A: Christian Koss (.257 → .303, +46 points) meets our strict betting criteria.

Q: Is Ramon De Jesus a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Mixed tendencies with a +3% strikeout and +8% walk increase.

Q: What time is the SD vs SF game? A: Game time is TBD.

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!Pitch Mix - Nick Pivetta !Pitch Mix - Kai-Wei Teng