PIT vs MIL: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 13)

Last updated: August 13, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Matchup Setup

Today's matchup features the Pittsburgh Pirates facing off against the Milwaukee Brewers. With betting odds not available at the moment, bettors will need to dig deeper into the data to find edges. The matchup focuses on two prominent pitchers, Mitch Keller for the Pirates and Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers, each bringing a unique arsenal to the mound.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Mitch Keller vs Brandon Woodruff

Mitch Keller (PIT):

Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 93.9 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 82.1 mph), Slider (16% usage, 86.9 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.8 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 77.3 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.1 mph), Cutter (0% usage, 92.4 mph).
Style: Keller is a pitch-mix artist with a diverse arsenal, balancing velocity with movement.
Matchup Insight: The Milwaukee lineup averages .256 this season with a projected xBA of .256 vs Keller's arsenal.

Brandon Woodruff (MIL):

Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage, 93.2 mph), Sinker (31% usage, 93.0 mph), Changeup (17% usage, 83.9 mph), Cutter (12% usage, 89.7 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 79.4 mph), Sweeper (2% usage, 80.6 mph).
Style: Woodruff leans on a velocity-heavy approach, utilizing fastballs and sinkers to dominate hitters.
Matchup Insight: The Pittsburgh lineup averages .232 this season but projects to .272 vs Woodruff's arsenal.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For PIT vs Brandon Woodruff:

The Pirates lineup averages .232 this season but projects to .272 against Woodruff's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .310 (+68 points), Season K% 26.9% → Arsenal K% 20.8% (-6.1%).
Biggest Decrease: Not applicable as minimal changes are found.

For MIL vs Mitch Keller:

The Brewers lineup averages .265 this season with a projected xBA of .256 against Keller's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .243 → xBA vs arsenal .276 (+33 points), Season K% 19.5% → Arsenal K% 20.2% (+0.7%).
Biggest Decrease: Sal Frelick: Season BA .293 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (-35 points), Season K% 13.1% → Arsenal K% 14.4% (+1.3%).

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

PIT's projected K-rate: 19.0% vs Woodruff — down 2.5% from their 21.5% season average, signaling potential for contact.
MIL's projected K-rate: 21.4% vs Keller — up 0.6% from their 20.9% season average, slightly increasing strikeout potential.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Bill Miller

Umpire Impact: Bill Miller brings a +25% strikeout boost and a -16% walk boost, creating a pitcher-friendly environment likely to favor hurlers.

Our Betting Take

Final Lean & Betting Takeaway

STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:

STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities

📢 Prop Alert: Bryan Reynolds (.242 → .310, +68 points) meets betting lean criteria!

STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props

No significant K prop value as neither team meets the criteria of a K-rate > 25% with a substantial increase.

STEP 3: Report findings

Bryan Reynolds presents a significant statistical edge, suggesting a strong batting prop opportunity.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Bryan Reynolds is the standout batter against Woodruff's arsenal, meeting our betting criteria for a prop.
No meaningful strikeout prop opportunities as team K-rates remain relatively stable.
Umpire Bill Miller's tendencies suggest a pitcher-friendly game, enhancing the strikeout potential.
Overall, the game's betting recommendation leans towards batter props, specifically for Bryan Reynolds.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the PIT vs MIL game? A: Bryan Reynolds is the standout prop, projected to significantly outperform against Woodruff.

Q: Is Bill Miller a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Yes, Bill Miller is slightly pitcher-friendly with a +25% strikeout boost and reduced walk potential.

Q: What time is the PIT vs MIL game? A: Game time is currently TBD.

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!Pitch Mix - Mitch Keller !Pitch Mix - Brandon Woodruff