August 13, 2025
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Braves vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 13)

Last updated: August 13, 2025

Game Time: 8/13, 07:10PM

Matchup Setup

The Atlanta Braves face off against the New York Mets in a crucial matchup. The Mets stand as the favorites with DraftKings listing them at -221, while the Braves are the underdogs at +178. Significantly, 92% of the money is backing the Mets, indicating strong public confidence in the home team.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Carrasco vs David Peterson

Carlos Carrasco (ATL):

  • Arsenal: Slider (26% usage, 84.3 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 90.4 mph), Four-Seam (21% usage, 91.5 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 84.9 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 77.6 mph)
  • Interpretation: Carrasco is a balanced pitcher, utilizing a variety of pitches to keep hitters off-balance. His moderate velocity is complemented by a diverse pitch mix.
  • Matchup Insight: The Mets lineup averages .251 this season with a projected xBA of .269 against Carrasco's arsenal, suggesting potential vulnerability.

David Peterson (NYM):

  • Arsenal: Sinker (29% usage, 91.1 mph), Four-Seam (24% usage, 92.3 mph), Slider (20% usage, 84.6 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 84.3 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.5 mph)
  • Interpretation: Peterson also relies on a varied arsenal but leans slightly more on his sinker and fastball to set the tone.
  • Matchup Insight: The Braves lineup averages .234 this season with a projected xBA of .236 against Peterson's pitches, indicating a slight edge for Peterson.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Braves vs. David Peterson:

  • Team Projection: The Braves lineup averages .234 this season but projects to .236 vs Peterson's arsenal.
  • Key Performers:
- II Harris: Season BA .244 → xBA vs arsenal .284 (+40 points), Season K% 19.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (-1.9%) - Jr. Alvarez: Season BA .231 → xBA vs arsenal .181 (-50 points), Season K% 32.2% → Arsenal K% 34.8% (+2.6%)

For Mets vs. Carlos Carrasco:

  • Team Projection: The Mets lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .269 vs Carrasco's arsenal.
  • Key Performers:
- Brett Baty: Season BA .232 → xBA vs arsenal .285 (+53 points), Season K% 24.3% → Arsenal K% 21.9% (-2.4%) - Francisco Alvarez: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .229 (-25 points), Season K% 25.4% → Arsenal K% 25.2% (-0.2%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards
  • Braves: Projected K-rate is 23.8% vs Peterson — up 0.5% from their 23.3% season average.
  • Mets: Projected K-rate is 20.2% vs Carrasco — up 0.1% from their 20.1% season average.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Nic Lentz
  • Strikeout Boost: +2%
  • Walk Boost: +6%
  • Interpretation: Nic Lentz exhibits hitter-friendly tendencies with an increased propensity for walks, which could benefit patient hitters.

Final Lean & Takeaway

Final Lean & Betting Takeaway

STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities

  • Brett Baty (.232 → .285, +53 points) meets the betting lean criteria!
> 📢 Prop Alert: Brett Baty (.232 → .285, +53 points) meets betting lean criteria!

STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props

  • No pitcher strikeout props meet the criteria (K% > 25% and increase > 4%).

STEP 3: Report findings

  • No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup, outside of Brett Baty's prop potential.

🔑 Key Takeaways

  • Brett Baty presents a strong prop opportunity with significant expected BA improvement.
  • No strong pitcher prop opportunities given current strikeout projections.
  • Umpire Nic Lentz's presence may favor hitters slightly, especially through increased walks.
  • Despite public money favoring the Mets, individual player props offer the clearest statistical edge.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Braves vs Mets game? A: Brett Baty is the standout player for prop betting with a significant xBA increase.

Q: Is Nic Lentz a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: No, Nic Lentz exhibits hitter-friendly tendencies with a +6% walk increase.

Q: What time is the Braves vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/13 at 07:10PM.

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!Pitch Mix - Carlos Carrasco !Pitch Mix - David Peterson

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