Braves vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 13)
Last updated: August 13, 2025Game Time: 8/13, 07:10PM
Matchup Setup
The Atlanta Braves face off against the New York Mets in a crucial matchup. The Mets stand as the favorites with DraftKings listing them at -221, while the Braves are the underdogs at +178. Significantly, 92% of the money is backing the Mets, indicating strong public confidence in the home team.Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Carrasco vs David PetersonCarlos Carrasco (ATL):
- Arsenal: Slider (26% usage, 84.3 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 90.4 mph), Four-Seam (21% usage, 91.5 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 84.9 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 77.6 mph)
- Interpretation: Carrasco is a balanced pitcher, utilizing a variety of pitches to keep hitters off-balance. His moderate velocity is complemented by a diverse pitch mix.
- Matchup Insight: The Mets lineup averages .251 this season with a projected xBA of .269 against Carrasco's arsenal, suggesting potential vulnerability.
David Peterson (NYM):
- Arsenal: Sinker (29% usage, 91.1 mph), Four-Seam (24% usage, 92.3 mph), Slider (20% usage, 84.6 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 84.3 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.5 mph)
- Interpretation: Peterson also relies on a varied arsenal but leans slightly more on his sinker and fastball to set the tone.
- Matchup Insight: The Braves lineup averages .234 this season with a projected xBA of .236 against Peterson's pitches, indicating a slight edge for Peterson.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting EdgesFor Braves vs. David Peterson:
- Team Projection: The Braves lineup averages .234 this season but projects to .236 vs Peterson's arsenal.
- Key Performers:
For Mets vs. Carlos Carrasco:
- Team Projection: The Mets lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .269 vs Carrasco's arsenal.
- Key Performers:
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards- Braves: Projected K-rate is 23.8% vs Peterson — up 0.5% from their 23.3% season average.
- Mets: Projected K-rate is 20.2% vs Carrasco — up 0.1% from their 20.1% season average.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Nic Lentz- Strikeout Boost: +2%
- Walk Boost: +6%
- Interpretation: Nic Lentz exhibits hitter-friendly tendencies with an increased propensity for walks, which could benefit patient hitters.
Final Lean & Takeaway
Final Lean & Betting TakeawaySTEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
- Brett Baty (.232 → .285, +53 points) meets the betting lean criteria!
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
- No pitcher strikeout props meet the criteria (K% > 25% and increase > 4%).
STEP 3: Report findings
- No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup, outside of Brett Baty's prop potential.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Brett Baty presents a strong prop opportunity with significant expected BA improvement.
- No strong pitcher prop opportunities given current strikeout projections.
- Umpire Nic Lentz's presence may favor hitters slightly, especially through increased walks.
- Despite public money favoring the Mets, individual player props offer the clearest statistical edge.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Braves vs Mets game? A: Brett Baty is the standout player for prop betting with a significant xBA increase.
Q: Is Nic Lentz a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: No, Nic Lentz exhibits hitter-friendly tendencies with a +6% walk increase.
Q: What time is the Braves vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/13 at 07:10PM.
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