October 6, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Dodgers vs Phillies: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 06)

Last updated: October 06, 2025

Game Time: 10/6, 06:08PM

Matchup Setup

The Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the Philadelphia Phillies in what promises to be an exciting matchup. DraftKings lists the Dodgers as a -132 favorite while the Phillies are a +108 underdog, with a notable 62% of the money backing Philadelphia. This game might hinge on the pitching prowess of Shohei Ohtani for the Dodgers versus Cristopher Sánchez for the Phillies.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)

Shohei Ohtani (LAD):

Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam (39% usage, 98.4 mph); Sweeper (23% usage, 85.0 mph); Slider (11% usage, 88.1 mph); Curveball (9% usage, 78.6 mph); Sinker (7% usage, 96.2 mph); Cutter (7% usage, 93.9 mph); Splitter (5% usage, 90.3 mph)
Interpretation: Ohtani is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse arsenal that can keep batters guessing, combining high-speed fastballs with deceptive breakers.
Performance Outlook: The Phillies' lineup averages .264 this season with a projected xBA of .258 against Ohtani's mix, indicating a slight disadvantage against his velocity and variety.

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI):

Pitch Arsenal: Sinker (46% usage, 95.4 mph); Changeup (37% usage, 86.3 mph); Slider (17% usage, 85.7 mph)
Interpretation: Sánchez relies heavily on his sinker and changeup, favoring movement over sheer speed to induce ground balls and weak contact.
Performance Outlook: The Dodgers' lineup averages .268 this season but projects to .260 against Sánchez's arsenal, suggesting a moderate adjustment to his style.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Dodgers vs Sánchez:

Overall: Dodgers season average is .268, projected to .260 vs Sánchez.
Biggest Increase: Tommy Edman shows a notable increase, Season BA .225 → xBA .287 (+62 points), Season K% 16.2% → Arsenal K% 11.8% (-4.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman experiences a dip, Season BA .295 → xBA .261 (-34 points), Season K% 20.4% → Arsenal K% 13.0% (-7.4%)

For the Phillies vs Ohtani:

Overall: Phillies season average is .264, projected to .258 vs Ohtani.
Biggest Increase: Bryce Harper gains, Season BA .261 → xBA .289 (+28 points), Season K% 20.9% → Arsenal K% 22.4% (+1.5%)
Biggest Decrease: Harrison Bader suffers, Season BA .277 → xBA .226 (-51 points), Season K% 27.1% → Arsenal K% 31.7% (+4.6%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Dodgers: Projected K-rate is 18.8% vs Sánchez — up 1.4% from their 17.4% season average. Slightly higher risk for strikeouts.
Phillies: Projected K-rate is 23.5% vs Ohtani — up 2.0% from their 21.5% season average. Increased strikeout risk suggests potential value in Ohtani's K prop.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Tommy Edman (.225 → .287, +62 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Shohei Ohtani strikeout OVER - Phillies' K-rate jumps to 23.5% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Tommy Edman shows a strong batting increase against Sánchez, presenting a solid prop opportunity.
Shohei Ohtani is a candidate for a strikeout prop given the Phillies' increased K-rate against him.
Umpire Impact: With the assignment unknown, there's uncertainty in prop volatility.
Overall Bet: Consider Ohtani's strikeout potential and Edman's batting prop for value plays.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Phillies game? A: Tommy Edman meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA significantly higher than his season average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, introducing volatility in strikeout and walk props.

Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Phillies game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/6, 06:08PM.

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