October 6, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Cubs vs Brewers: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 06)

Last updated: October 06, 2025

Game Time: 10/6, 09:08PM

Matchup Setup

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in a matchup where the Brewers are favored at -127, while the Cubs come in as +105 underdogs. With 55% of the betting money backing Milwaukee, this game may hinge on pitcher performance and key batter matchups.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea vs Freddy Peralta

Colin Rea (CHC):

Colin Rea brings a diverse pitch mix to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 93.8 mph), Splitter (12% usage, 87.4 mph), Slider (10% usage, 85.2 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 93.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.3 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 82.8 mph), and Cutter (7% usage, 88.2 mph). With this mix, Rea can be described as a pitch-mix artist. However, the Brewers lineup has averaged .260 this season with a projected xBA of .258 against Rea's arsenal.

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Freddy Peralta is known for his velocity-heavy approach with a dominant Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), backed by a Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph). The Cubs lineup, hitting .253 this season, projects to .248 against Peralta’s offerings, suggesting a slight edge for the pitcher in this matchup.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Cubs vs Freddy Peralta: The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .248 against Peralta's arsenal. Key changes include:

Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+28 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.4% (+1.9%)
Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%)

For the Brewers vs Colin Rea: The Brewers lineup averages .260 this season and projects to .258 against Rea's arsenal. Notable changes include:

Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .283 (+29 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.9% (-1.0%)
Sal Frelick: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (-30 points), Season K% 13.5% → Arsenal K% 14.3% (+0.8%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Cubs: The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average, indicating potential K prop value for Peralta.

For the Brewers: The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.4% vs Rea — up 1.5% from their 18.9% season average, suggesting moderate contact play.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Michael Busch (.261 → .290, +28 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Michael Busch presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a notable xBA increase against Peralta.
Freddy Peralta's strikeout potential is enhanced by the Cubs' increased K-rate projection.
Umpire assignment remains unknown, injecting uncertainty into prop betting.
Overall, focus on Peralta's strikeouts and Busch's hitting potential.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Brewers game? A: Michael Busch stands out with a significant projected batting average increase against Freddy Peralta.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, adding uncertainty to the matchup.

Q: What time is the Cubs vs Brewers game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/6 at 09:08PM.

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