The Bears finished 5-12 last year, but the record doesn’t tell the whole story. They averaged 18.2 points per game while allowing 21.8, an average margin of just -3. For a team that won only five games, being within a field goal on average suggests they were far more competitive than the standings showed. Compare that to Carolina, who also went 5-12 but finished with an -11.3 margin, and it’s clear the Bears weren’t nearly as far off. That’s exactly the type of profile that screams upside once the right pieces are added.
Offseason Overhaul
Chicago had one of the best offseasons in football, and it started with the head coach. Ben Johnson, the architect of Detroit’s 29-point-per-game offense, is now in charge, bringing creativity and balance to an offense that desperately needed direction. He’s joined by defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, giving the Bears fresh leadership on both sides of the ball.
In the trenches, the Bears completely reworked their offensive line. They traded for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, then signed Drew Dalman in free agency. That trio instantly transforms a line that was a liability into one of the more reliable units in the division. For a young quarterback like Caleb Williams, that stability is everything. He now gets time to work through reads and use his athleticism as a weapon instead of a survival tool.
On the outside, the Bears added weapons designed to make life easier for their second-year QB. Colston Loveland at tight end and Luther Burden III at wideout both project as mismatch nightmares who can turn short throws into big plays. Pair that with an improved line, and Williams’ job becomes less about carrying the team and more about executing a scheme that puts playmakers in space.
And let’s not forget the defense. While the spotlight has been on the offense, Chicago’s defense quietly allowed just 21.8 points per game last year — middle of the pack despite the team’s struggles. With Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbonow in the fold, this unit has the playmakers to create pressure and flip momentum. That combination of an upgraded offense and a defense that already had a solid foundation is why ESPN and CBS both pegged Chicago as a dark-horse contender heading into 2025.
Vikings’ Regression Setup
Minnesota, on the other hand, is staring at regression. They bring back the same staff from last year’s 14-win team, but the context matters. A huge chunk of those victories came in one-score games, a category that almost always evens out year to year. Teams that win a high percentage of close games rarely repeat it, especially when personnel takes a step back.
The big story tonight is rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy making his first NFL start. And it isn’t just any start — it’s Week 1, on the road, against a division rival, in prime time. Those spots have historically chewed up rookies. The game speed is different, the defenses disguise more, and the hostile environment ramps up pressure. Even elite rookies have stumbled in these situations, which makes McCarthy’s debut a massive unknown.
The roster around him is fine, but not dominant. They addressed the interior offensive and defensive lines, which were weak last year (62.2 PFF grade at guard/center, 56.7 at defensive tackle). But the draft was shaky. With limited capital, they opted for a wideout in the third round instead of trading down or addressing immediate needs. That decision, paired with handing the offense to a rookie, suggests a team that didn’t maximize its window after a 14-win campaign.
Market and Perception
This is where the “public perception gap” comes into play. Casual bettors still see last year’s 14 wins and assume Minnesota is a top-tier team, while Chicago is written off as a bottom feeder because of their 5-12 record. But when you account for how much of Minnesota’s success came in unsustainable one-score games, and how close Chicago actually was despite their losses, the picture looks very different.
And the market data reflects that. Right now, 71% of bets are on Vikings ML and 59% are on Vikings -1/-1.5. But follow the money — only 53% of dollars are on Vikings ML, and just 21% are on their spread. That means 79% of spread money is backing the Bears despite fewer tickets, which is exactly the kind of split that points toward sharper action.
The line history tells the same story. Chicago actually opened as the favorite months ago. After a quick flip toward Minnesota, the number has held steady and even trickled back toward the Bears. Books aren’t willing to push this higher, even with heavy public Viking money coming in.
Ref Factor
The officiating crew adds another layer. Alan Eck has leaned toward home teams since 2023, with a 20-11 record (65%) and a 24% ROI. In divisional games, it’s even stronger: 6-3 (66%) with a 28% ROI. He hasn’t worked many Bears or Vikings games yet, but the data is clear: Eck’s whistle tends to favor the home side.
System Reinforcement
Finally, we have the systems — and they’re about as strong as you’ll find in a single game.
Week 1 divisional dogs with totals of 43 or higher have been gold historically, hitting 64% with a 24% ROI. The logic is simple: divisional games are tighter, and higher totals give dogs more paths to stay inside the number or win outright.
Home divisional dogs of +1 to +10 in Week 1 are 29-17 (63%), cashing because early divisional games level the playing field. Travel is minimal, familiarity is high, and home-field edges matter more when teams are still shaking off rust.
Playoff vs non-playoff divisional matchups in Week 1 lean hard to the non-playoff team, going 40-16-1 (71%). That’s because the market overweights what happened last season and undervalues teams that improved in the offseason — exactly like this Bears team.
Early-season Monday night home dogs with totals above 41 have gone 17-8 (68%). Under the lights, with extra motivation, these teams simply rise to the occasion more often than not.
And perhaps the most compelling: Teams that won 0-5 games the prior year, catching between +1.5 and +6.5 in the first four weeks against in-conference opponents, are 136-79-2 (63%). The reason? The market can’t adjust fast enough when a “bad” team from last year gets significantly better.
On their own, each of these systems is profitable. Put together, they all describe the same profile: an undervalued home dog against a team overvalued by last season’s results. The overlap makes this one of the cleanest system spots of the entire Week 1 slate.
The Pick
The Bears aren’t last year’s Bears. They have a rebuilt offensive line, more playmakers, and one of the league’s brightest offensive minds calling plays. Their defense already had a strong base, and now they’ve added pieces to take it up another notch. Meanwhile, Minnesota is breaking in a rookie quarterback in one of the toughest possible debut spots, with a roster that didn’t move forward the way the Bears did.
Factor in the systems, referee edge, and sharper money leaning Chicago, and Bears ML at +105 on Bet365 is exactly the type of undervalued spot bettors wait all offseason for.
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