We've got another Monday Night Football doubleheader on deck. The first game kicks off in Atlanta at 7:15 ET, with the Bills looking to get back on track as -4.5 road favorites. At 8:15 ET, the number 1 and 2 overall picks of the 2024 Draft go head-to-head with Caleb Williams and the Bears taking on Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. Here are three of my favorite player prop looks for Monday, October 13th.
Drake London o65.5 receiving yards vs Buffalo
*Posted on Friday. Join to get the plays early! o72.5 receiving yards fine*
"London is a big dawg receiver. He’s one of those guys you want to move around and try to get into as many places you can," HC Raheem Morris. After seeing what Stefon Diggs did to this Bills defense (10/146) last week, it's hard not to like London's potential for Monday. The Falcons will likely need to go score-for-score dealing with this Buffalo offense. It's not like Atlanta has many playmakers to make a difference, aside from Bijan and London. Darnell Mooney was a DNP in Thursday's practice due to a hamstring injury, so there's a chance he misses as well (he has now been ruled out). London went 8/110/1 against the Commanders before Atlanta's Week 5 bye. Let's hope he carries that production over to this week.
Caleb Williams o24.5 rushing yards vs Washington
Washington has permitted the 9th most rushing yards to QBs. They've generated the t-3rd highest pressure rate, leading to more scrambling from mobile QBs like Russell Wilson (8/44) and Justin Herbert (4/60). Williams has the wheels to make plays with his legs when under pressure, as we saw Week 1 on MNF vs the Vikings (2nd highest blitz%, t-3rd highest pressure%), when he went 6/58 on the ground. Williams rushed for 47 yards on 9 carries against Washington last year, and has 27+ rushing yards in 12/21 career games overall.
Jacory Croskey-Merrit o82.5 rushing + receiving yards vs Chicago
Coming off his first career start and a season high 48% of snaps, it looks like Bill is starting to separate himself from the rest of the backs in Washington. He went 14/111 on the ground with 2 TDs, and 2/39 through the air last week against the Chargers. OC Kliff Kingsbury on what has impressed him, "The work ethic, first and foremost. He doesn’t make the same mistake twice. Throughout camp, when he touched the ball, good things happened. He still has a way to go away from the ball, but just the constant improvement has earned him more touches. He has to keep working to become a complete back. But since he got here, he tends to do good things with the ball when he touches it."
The advanced metrics speak to what Kingsbury is saying, too. Croskey-Merrit is 1st in rush yards over expectation (2.17) among all RBs per NFL Next Gen Stats. Playing against this porous Bears run defense, this is the perfect matchup for BCM to shine. Fantasy Points rates this as the best rushing matchup of the week. The Bears have allowed the highest YPC to RBs (6.05) with the likes of Ashon Jeanty (21/138/1), Javonte Williams (10/76) + Miles Sanders (9/41), Jahmyr Gibbs (12/94/1) + David Montgomery (11/57/1), and Jordan Mason (15/68) all finding plenty of success on the ground against them. The Commanders could also rely on the ground game a little more in this one, given the status of their receiving corps. They'll be without Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, and Deebo Samuel will be a game-time decision as he deals with a heel injury. I'm also tacking on the receiving yards, seeing that he has two grabs in each of his last two games, along with the lack of pass-catching options on the team.
