Vikings vs Chargers Best Player Props
The Minnesota Vikings head to So-Fi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers this Thursday. A 3.5 spread separates the teams, with LAC favored, and the total sits at 44.5. These short-week TNF games tend to bring out some wacky results, so let's look to the safety valves of these Quarterbacks and target their Tight Ends.
T.J. Hockenson over 31.5 receiving yards
Tossing it to Tight Ends has long been a favorite of Carson Wentz. Just ask Zach Ertz from 2016-2019. He averaged 89 receptions, 127 targets, and 930 yards each year over those 4 seasons. In four games with Wentz, Hockenson has gone 5/49/1, 4/39, 6/38, and 6/43. His 26 targets over this span are second on the team, behind Justin Jefferson (39). We just saw Tyler Warren go 4/69/1 vs the Chargers last week, who play zone at the 7th highest rate. Hockenson has done most of his work against zone coverages, generating 1.59 YPRR (yards per route run) vs zone compared to .54 YPRR vs man. He has the 4th-best coverage grade matchup of the week per Fantasy Points Data. As +3.5 road dogs, there's a good chance we see Wentz airing it out in this one. Kevin O'Connell loves to lean on the passing game, and Minnesota is 9th in PROE (pass rate over expectation this year, after being 2nd last year.
Orande Gadsden over 40.5 receiving yards - *Posted on Tuesday, 42.5 available at FanDuel*
The Chargers fifth-round rookie has slowly but surely become a big presence in the passing attack. Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh on 9/24 (Week 3), "The look in his eye jumped out at me when I told him at the beginning of the week that he would be up and playing. The kind of competitor he is, he wanted that. I just had the feeling — I’ve been to this movie a few times, and there’s more good to come." Last week was a movie, alright, and there has been a clear shift in TE usage with the Chargers.
After being a healthy scratch in the first two weeks of the season, Gadsden has run a route on 58%, 69%, and 79% of dropbacks over the last three weeks. That coincides with Will Dissly trending in the opposite direction, running a route on 1.6% of dropbacks last week, and 20.5% the week prior. Gadsden's 79% route participation last week was 3rd-highest on the team, surpassing Keenan Allen. All he did was turn that into a 7/164/1 line on 9 targets. The week before, Gadsden caught 7 of his 8 targets for 68 yards.
The Chargers could lean on Herbert's arm even more than they normally do in this one. They're still without Omarion Hampton, Najee Harris is out for the year, and Hassan Haskins is doubtful to play on a short week, as he deals with a hamstring injury. That leaves Kimani Vidal as the only viable Running Back tonight. The Chargers are first in pass rate, and 2nd in PROE on the year. Admittedly, the Vikings haven't ceded much production to Tight Ends this year, but we did see the Browns TE duo combine for 10/80/2 vs them in Week 5. Minnesota does have the highest 2-HI/MOF O% (2-Hi safety/middle of the field open %) though, which should bode well for Gadsden. He leads the team with 2.12 YPRR facing that coverage. The Rookie Tight End has the highest matchup coverage grade among all Charger pass-catchers this week (per FPD) and the 20th highest amongst all WRs and TEs this week.
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