Ravens vs Dolphins Best Player Props
The return of Lamar Jackson is finally here. Baltimore travels to Miami, looking to claw their way back into the playoff picture with half of the season remaining. As -7.5 favorites and other returning pieces, the Ravens should be able to pick their number against this horrific Dolphins defense.
De'Von Achane under 60.5 rushing yards - *Posted on Tuesday, 57.5 available at MGM*
Mike McDaniel on the running back committee against Atlanta, "I think the biggest upside of using all three running backs is the different ballcarriers that defenders have to tackle. I think that’s underrated. You have a little changeup in body make-up, size, conviction. It’s a different target, it’s a different in-hole speed, it’s a different tackle...With a talented backfield, you’re trying to get those guys the ball. It works to our overall benefit if we can get those guys touches, for sure."
In the 1st half against Atlanta, Ollie Gordon had 7 carries, Jaylen Wright had 2, while Achane led the way with 8. Still, there seemed to be a shift in usage, especially with what McDaniel had to say. The Dolphins were playing with a hefty lead on Sunday, but the likelihood of that happening this week seems slim with Lamar Jackson suiting up for Baltimore. The Dolphins are +7.5 home dogs at the time of this writing. In addition to Lamar's return, the Ravens also got a massive piece back on defense in Roquan Smith. He played a massive part in slowing down the Bears rushing attack last week, leading the game with 12 tackles—Chicago's RBs combined for an 18/69 (3.83 YPC) line. The Dolphins offensive line isn't anything to write home about either, and is 30th in run-block win rate. The Ravens should be able to control the clock with their own running game, facing the Dolphins, who are 27th in rush EPA, keeping Achane and the Fins off the field.
Keaton Mitchell over 13.5 rushing yards
John Harbaugh, in his postgame presser on Sunday, "One of the many things we looked at during the bye week was tagging plays for Keaton Mitchell. We just said, we gotta do it. You want to make sure that Derrick Henry gets his reps, and Justice Hill is effective, but we just said that we have got to tag plays for Keaton Mitchell and make sure we get him the ball."
Mitchell looked explosive in his 4 carries, finishing with 43 yards on the ground against Chicago. On a short week, after feeding Henry for 21 carries, it wouldn't be surprising to see Mitchell even more involved on TNF, and this is a fantastic matchup for the running game.The Dolphins have allowed the 5th most YPC (5.01) to Running Backs, and are 27th in rush EPA allowed. They're also 29th in EPA allowed per dropback. With Lamar back, Miami won't be able to stack the box the way they did against Atlanta, when they faced Kirk Cousins and a Drake London-less Falcons squad. As -7.5 favorites, the Ravens should be able to control this game and get whatever they want on the ground, potentially leading to Mitchell closing out the game for the team. If you buy into that narrative as well, sprinkle a little on Mitchell to have the last TD of the game at 35/1.
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