Bengals +5.5 vs. Steelers — Monday, October 16th (8:15 PM ET)
The Steelers enter this matchup red-hot, having won and covered in three straight games, while the Bengals look like a team searching for identity after losing their franchise quarterback early in the season. Cincinnati has dropped four straight since Joe Burrow went down, but the betting markets are sending signals that this might be the week to buy low.
According to Insider Stats, the Steelers moneyline currently holds 82.5% of bets and 64.5% of dollars, leaving the Bengals with roughly 17.5% of bets but 35.5% of the money — a sharp-money indicator. Larger, smarter wagers appear to be backing Cincinnati. Three days ago the Bengals’ moneyline sat around +215 to +230, yet despite heavy public action on Pittsburgh, the line has tightened to +205 to +220, showing quiet resistance on the Bengals side. The spread opened near +4.5 and briefly touched +6 after last Sunday’s games, but immediate sharp action pulled it back down to +5.5, suggesting that covering two field goals is the market’s sweet spot.
Public perception aside, the broader primetime underdog trend is impossible to ignore. Last season, underdogs were just 21-36 ATS (37%), and those catching +3.5 or more covered only 38% of the time. This year the script has flipped. Primetime dogs are 15-6 ATS (71%), and larger dogs (+3.5 or more) are an astonishing 11-2 ATS (85%) with a 61% ROI. That kind of reversal doesn’t happen by chance — it’s the oddsmakers exploiting recency bias from last year’s lopsided results. With the public again flocking to a popular favorite, the macro trend clearly favors Cincinnati.
Head coach Mike Tomlin’s reputation for motivating teams as underdogs often overshadows his struggles as a favorite. Over his career, Tomlin is 93-101-2 ATS (47.9%) when laying points. As a favorite of a field goal or more, that mark falls to 74-88 ATS (45.7%), and since 2017 he’s just 25-34 ATS (42.4%) as a favorite. In games with low closing totals (under 45 points), where scoring volatility tightens margins, his teams are only 16-24 ATS (40%). Those numbers make it difficult to justify laying nearly six points on the road, especially in a divisional environment where underdogs historically keep things close.
Now, a few older systems still technically back the Steelers — but they’ve shown signs of fading in the modern era. For example, “In-division close road dogs that lost the previous head-to-head” are 431-340 (56%) all-time with 8% ROI, yet just 5-7 (42%) this season with –20% ROI. Similarly, “Fading single-digit home dogs coming off a loss of more than 3” sits 190-132 (59%) overall (15% ROI) but just 1-3 (25%) this season (–53% ROI). Broader angles such as “Fading teams going home after a loss, no freezing weather, no byes” show the same decline — 431-311 (58%) lifetime with 13% ROI but 5-8 (38%) this year (–27% ROI). These models were once sharp because they capitalized on public overreactions to recent losses, but the market has caught up. With the post-kickoff-rule scoring volatility and primetime underdog trend reversal, these once-profitable “fade the home team” strategies are no longer delivering consistent edges.
Officiating adds another subtle layer. Clay Martin will serve as head referee, and history shows a clear lean toward underdogs under his watch. Since 2018, dogs in Martin-officiated games have covered at a 61% rate (67-43). Even more telling, when those underdogs had a season win percentage of 40% or less, they’ve covered 70% of the time (42-18). In a game where Cincinnati enters as the struggling side with public money overwhelmingly on the favorite, the officiating trends further support the dog.
And make no mistake — this is not the same Bengals team we saw a few weeks ago. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco may not have the mobility of his prime years, but he brings stability, experience, and accuracy to an offense that still features playmakers like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Last week against the Packers, Cincinnati entered as 14-point underdogs and kept the game competitive throughout, ultimately covering. Flacco threw 45 times for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns, connecting on several deep intermediate routes while showing flashes of comfort in the system. With a week of rhythm built and elite receiving options, this offense is capable of stretching a Pittsburgh defense that, while opportunistic, has been far from airtight.
The Steelers’ 4-1 record masks several concerning underlying metrics. Offensively, they rank 29th in yards per game (277.8) and 23rd in yards per play (5.1). Their third-down conversion rate (38.6%) and fourth-down success (33.3%) both sit in the league’s bottom third, showing a lack of consistent drive sustainability. On defense, they rank 25th in yards allowed per game (355.6) and 18th in third-down stops (40.3%), meaning opponents move the ball effectively despite Pittsburgh’s flashy turnover differential (+1.4 per game, 2nd in NFL). The run game also offers little support, ranking 30th in yards per rush (3.4) and 22nd in rush attempts, suggesting they rely too heavily on short fields and defensive splash plays. When you combine an over-achieving record with mediocre efficiency, regression tends to follow — especially as road favorites.
This sets up perfectly for a Bengals team ready to show life at home. Cincinnati has the weapons to test Pittsburgh vertically and force the Steelers into uncomfortable tempo. The public is riding the hotter team, the systems that once favored them are cooling off, and the officiating trends all tilt toward the underdog. Given the data and market movement, the Bengals at +5.5 offer clear value in a spot where sharp money continues to lean their way.
Final Plays:
- 0.5 Units – Bengals +5.5 (–110 FanDuel)
- 0.2 Units – Bengals Moneyline (+220 FanDuel)
If you want to learn where we source our public betting data, referee assignments, team analytics, and verified sharp systems, subscribe to Insider Advantage. Gain access to the same data driving our plays, plus daily picks and premium models — click below to join.
