Raiders vs Broncos Best Player Props
We have a divisional showdown in the Mountain West, with the Las Vegas Raiders traveling to Denver to take on the 7-2 Broncos. A 9.5 spread separates the squads, in favor of the Broncos, with the total sitting at just 42.5.
Ashton Jeanty under 14.5 rush attempts (+104)
We faded the Raiders rookie on the ground last week, and I see no reason not to do it on a short week. Las Vegas travels to Denver as +9.5 dogs, and rightfully so. This team is garbage, ranking 29th in EPA on offense and 23rd on defense. The Broncos should be able to play ball control against them, as Sean Payton loves to do, preventing the Raiders from leaning into the run game.
Coming out of the bye with Brock Bowers healthy, Las Vegas led all teams in PROE (pass rate over expectation) in Week 9. They're still just 18th overall on the year. The shift in play-calling led to just 13 carries for Jeanty, despite the game going to OT. He is now under this mark in 4 of 6 Raider losses.
It's about time they abandon a run-heavy approach--their offensive line is awful, allowing 1.37 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (ADJ YBC/ATT). That is the 2nd worst among all teams playing this week. This rates as the worst run blocking matchup of the week per FPD, with Denver allowing just 1.32 ADJ YBC/ATT.
Courtland Sutton over 55.5 receiving yards (-114)
Sutton drew the Derek Stingley Jr. shadow last week, hence the 1/30 receiving line. He made the most of that grab, though, scoring a TD. On the year, he has 61+ receiving yards in 7/10 games. Dating back to last season with Bo Nix, Sutton has 61+ receiving yards in 15 of his last 21 games. He's clearly the go-to-guy in Denver's passing attack, and the Raiders have allowed the 5th most receiving yards to WRs, and are 25th in dropback EPA allowed. Denver will be without Marvin Mims once again this week, too, potentially leading to more deep shots to the 6'4 wideout. Buy the dip after last week's low output, and bank on the Broncos primary receiver to work his way to 60+ yards as he typically does.
We post daily props with in detail write-ups every single day, and you can try for just $1. Click below to learn more:
