Week 1 Overview
When it comes to Week 1, no team has been more reliable over the last two decades than the Baltimore Ravens. They’ve gone 13-7 both straight up and against the spread in season openers during that span, and since 2017 they’ve won those games by an average of 19 points. That dominance includes a 47-3 dismantling of Buffalo back in 2018, a matchup that mirrors tonight’s situation with Baltimore opening on the road against the Bills. This is a team that sets the tone early and often, and history suggests they’re built to strike fast again this season.
On the flip side, Buffalo hasn’t delivered the same consistency. While the Bills are also 13-7 ATS in Week 1 over the past 20 years, their recent record tells a different story. In their last four openers they’ve gone just 1-3 both straight up and against the number, losing to the Cardinals, Jets, and Steelers—opponents that were far from elite. For a team chasing a Super Bowl window, slow starts have been a recurring problem.
Offseason Grade
The offseason tells a similar tale. Nate Davis of USA Today, a writer whose work I’ve always respected, gave Baltimore a B+ grade, ranking them 5th among all NFL teams. Davis praised the Ravens for keeping cornerstone left tackle Ronnie Stanley under contract, while also bringing in proven veterans like DeAndre Hopkins and Jaire Alexander to bolster the roster. On top of that, rookies Malaki Starks and Mike Green could step in with immediate contributions, giving Baltimore a mix of stability and fresh impact. The only looming challenge is navigating Lamar Jackson’s massive future cap hit, but overall Davis sees Baltimore as a team set up for another Super Bowl push.
Buffalo, meanwhile, earned just a B grade and slotted in 12th overall. Davis pointed out that the biggest offseason headline was Josh Allen’s six-year, $330 million extension—an important but expected move. Beyond that, the Bills leaned heavily on continuity, reinvesting in familiar names like Greg Rousseau, Khalil Shakir, and Terrel Bernard while banking on second-year players like Dalton Kincaid to take leaps. First-rounder Maxwell Hairston’s legal issues and an early injury to Joey Bosa add further uncertainty. Davis raised the question of whether Buffalo’s conservative approach will be enough to keep them at the top, especially as other AFC contenders reloaded aggressively.
Betting Market
The betting market has already tipped its hand. Sharps came in strong on Baltimore at +1.5, pushing the line all the way through zero to Ravens -1.5. That kind of swing isn’t just noise—it shows professional bettors and Vegas both respect Baltimore’s position here. With history, offseason momentum, and sharp action all pointing in the same direction, the Ravens moneyline is the best way to attack this matchup. The juice is worth it to avoid the slim chance of a one-point win. In Week 1, Baltimore tends to start hot, and everything lines up for that trend to continue.
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