SEA @ DET Game 3 — Under 7.5

After two straight low-scoring games in this playoff series, it’s clear that offense has been tough to come by. Each matchup has landed right on five total runs, and there’s little reason to believe the tone changes here. Game 3 brings another strong pitching setup and multiple historical systems pointing toward another quiet night on the scoreboard.

Logan Gilbert takes the mound for Seattle, and he’s been brilliant down the stretch. Gilbert finished the regular season with a 3.44 ERA across 131 innings, and over his final five starts, he allowed just seven earned runs in 27.1 innings. His ability to limit damage, even against elite offenses, makes him one of the more reliable under arms in October. On the other side, Jack Flaherty brings sneaky upside. His 4.64 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story — his 188 strikeouts in 161 innings (that’s 10.5 K’s per nine) highlight why he’s so valuable in playoff baseball. He’s also been much stronger at home with a 4.18 ERA compared to 5.27 on the road, suggesting a bounce-back performance in front of the Detroit crowd.

Vegas seems to agree that this will be a competitive, low-scoring game. Despite only 30% of public bets and money backing the Tigers, their line has moved from +120 to +115, indicating sharp action on Detroit and confidence in a closer contest than most expect. That combination — respected money on the underdog and steady totals action on the under — is often a red flag for offensive output.

Now, let’s talk systems. This game aligns with multiple proven under trends from Ian’s database that continue to crush in postseason and late-season environments:

• Early Postseason Unders (No Championship Series) — 103-71 (59%), ROI 12%. Early playoff rounds bring fresher bullpens, tighter pitch calls, and shorter hooks for starters — all under-friendly.
• Yoff Unders, Two Well-Rested Teams (Non-Division) — 133-91 (59%), ROI 14%. Familiarity is limited, and pitchers generally dominate these matchups.
• Winning Teams in Favorable Conditions (No Over Streaks or Late Series) — 1091-745 (59%), ROI 14%. Good teams in stable weather settings tend to play disciplined, controlled baseball.
• Yoff Unders, High-Scoring Teams (No Heavy Home Dogs) — 72-17 (81%), ROI 54%. When elite offenses collide but the home side isn’t heavily favored, the inflated total gets punished.
• Early Series Yoff Unders (No Elite Home Teams, No Heavy Home Dogs) — 89-46 (66%), ROI 27%. These early-series spots without powerhouse home clubs have consistently trended low.
• Two Winning Teams, Not Game 1, Favorable Conditions — 1119-808 (58%), ROI 12%. Once the tone of a series is set, pitchers gain command while hitters tighten up.
• Yoff Unders, High-Scoring Teams, Home Team’s Previous Game Went Under, No Elite SP — 41-7 (85%), ROI 65%. When even big bats go quiet at home, momentum often continues under.

Each system converges on the same takeaway — postseason unders thrive when both teams have competent starters, rested bullpens, and motivation amplified by tight series play. Everything about this setup screams for another scoreline hovering around that five or six run mark we’ve seen twice already.

Official Pick: 1u on Under 7.5 (-110)

And for a little fun on FanDuel:

• 0.1u — Total Runs 5–6 (+360)
• 0.05u — Tigers Win 4–3 (+2200)
• 0.05u — Tigers Win 3–2 (+2000)
  
  Total units at risk: 1.2

If history and the data hold true, this one should be another grinder that stays well below the total — and maybe even lands right on that magic five again.

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