The Week 3 Bills vs Dolphins matchup checks every box for an Under play, with multiple high-performing systems, market movement, and referee data all aligning. Alan Eck, the head official, has leaned to the Under historically, with his games going 18-14-1 (56%) overall and 15-10 (60%) with home favorites, including 8-4 last year. That background fits the divisional primetime context, where totals tend to close inflated and scoring often underwhelms.
Under Systems in Play:
- Primetime divisional Unders, no low totals: 120-73 (62%, ROI: 20%) overall, 2-1 this year (67%, ROI: 27%).
- Massive home favorites, no low totals, above .500 teams: 83-42 (66%, ROI: 29%).
- Heavy home favorite Unders, in-conference: 179-128 (58%, ROI: 13%), though 0-1 this year.
- Very humid Unders, line did not move up: 175-100 (64%, ROI: 23%) overall, 4-0 this season (100%, ROI: 91%).
- Primetime in-conference Unders, no domes or low totals: 170-113 (60%, ROI: 16%) overall, 1-0 this year (100%, ROI: 95%).
Game Outlook: The Bills have looked like a team hitting its stride. In Week 1, they stormed back with a massive 4th quarter against Baltimore, and in Week 2 they dominated the Jets 30-10, holding them to just 154 total yards. The defense has shown flashes of greatness when it matters most, limiting Baltimore to six points in the 4th and then smothering the Jets from start to finish. Miami, by contrast, has stumbled — a 33-8 loss at Indianapolis followed by a 33-27 home loss to New England, with their offense producing mostly in garbage time. Add in Alan Eck’s home-favorite dominance — 22-3 SU (88%) overall, and when laying more than a FG, 14-4 ATS (78%) and 18-1 SU (95%) — and this game profiles as Buffalo controlling tempo from the start. That combination of defensive strength, opponent inconsistency, and referee tilt suggests a slower-paced script rather than a shootout.
Final Lean: Under 50.5 (Bet365), still good at 49.5. With five profitable Under systems, divisional familiarity, and Buffalo positioned to dictate pace under a ref that favors controlled home favorites, this is one of the strongest Under setups of the early season
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