The Home Run Derby brings fireworks, but it’s also a unique betting opportunity that rewards smart, calculated plays. With new rule changes in effect and a field full of first-timers, there's real edge to be found — if you’re looking in the right places. Below are two bets that stand out heading into tonight’s derby: one totals-based, and one longshot winner with serious upside.
First Round Total
The recent rule changes limiting participants to 40 swings or three minutes per round, whichever comes first, have significantly impacted home run totals. Last year’s derby saw just 138 home runs in the opening round under these restrictions. Interestingly, sportsbooks have set this year's Round 1 total at 154.5, despite the evidence pointing towards a lower scoring environment. Additionally, most participants this year are first-time derby competitors, and history shows that rookies typically struggle under the spotlight, with only three rookie winners since 2000. These factors collectively present a strong case for under 154.5 home runs in Round 1.
Round 1 Total Home Runs Under 154.5 (-115 @ DraftKings)
Outright Derby Winner
Matt Olson stands out as an enticing bet to take home this year's derby title. While his current season stats might not immediately suggest a powerful showing, Olson's underlying metrics indicate immense potential. Ranking in the 98th percentile in exit velocity and the 94th percentile in barrel percentage, Olson clearly possesses the elite power required for derby success. Furthermore, the event taking place at Truist Park significantly favors Olson's left-handed swing, with the park boasting a 106 park factor for lefties compared to 99 for righties over the last three years. Lastly, Olson will enjoy immense hometown support, a critical intangible factor that often motivates derby participants to deliver standout performances. With all these advantages, Olson presents excellent value at +950 odds.
Matt Olson to Win (+950 @ FanDuel)
Sports betting should be exciting, but it still calls for a disciplined mindset — even when it’s the Home Run Derby. Just because it’s an exhibition doesn’t mean you should abandon smart strategy.
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