August 19, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Yankees vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 19)

Last updated: August 19, 2025

Game Time: 8/19, 07:35PM

Game Overview

Tonight, the New York Yankees (NYY) travel to face the Tampa Bay Rays (TB) in what promises to be a compelling matchup. The Yankees enter as -149 favorites according to DraftKings, with 85% of the wagers backing them, while the Rays are positioned as +122 underdogs. This game will be a test of pitching prowess versus lineup depth.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs Shane Baz (TB)

Carlos Rodón (NYY):

Carlos Rodón brings a versatile pitch arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 94.3 mph), Slider (30% usage, 85.8 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 85.0 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 92.1 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 80.0 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy style, Rodón challenges hitters with a mix of speed and movement. The Rays lineup averages .261 this season but projects to hit just .242 against Rodón's mix, indicating a potential edge for Rodón.

Shane Baz (TB):

Shane Baz, the Rays' promising young arm, counters with a robust set of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 96.9 mph), Curveball (27% usage, 84.8 mph), Cutter (13% usage, 89.9 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 89.4 mph), Slider (4% usage, 86.7 mph). Baz's velocity and sharp breaking pitches pose a challenge to the Yankees, who average .264 this season but are projected to .257 against his arsenal.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Yankees vs Shane Baz:

The Yankees lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .257 against Baz's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Trent Grisham: Season BA .247 → xBA vs arsenal .276 (+29 points), Season K% 21.0% → Arsenal K% 20.6% (-0.4%).
Biggest Decrease: Aaron Judge: Season BA .333 → xBA vs arsenal .284 (-49 points), Season K% 25.5% → Arsenal K% 30.5% (+5.0%).

For the Rays vs Carlos Rodón:

The Rays lineup averages .262 this season but projects to .242 against Rodón's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Chandler Simpson: Season BA .302 → xBA vs arsenal .326 (+24 points), Season K% 9.5% → Arsenal K% 9.0% (-0.5%).
Biggest Decrease: Ha-Seong Kim: Season BA .304 → xBA vs arsenal .216 (-88 points), Season K% 28.8% → Arsenal K% 27.7% (-1.1%).

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Yankees' projected K-rate is 27.0% vs Shane Baz — up 3.1% from their 23.8% season average.
The Rays' projected K-rate is 23.2% vs Carlos Rodón — up 1.3% from their 21.9% season average.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Chandler Simpson (.302 → .326, +24 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Carlos Rodón strikeout OVER - Rays' K-rate jumps to 23.2% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Chandler Simpson shows a significant batting advantage against Carlos Rodón's arsenal, presenting a strong prop opportunity.
Carlos Rodón's projected strikeout increase against the Rays lineup suggests a favorable K prop bet.
The absence of an umpire assignment adds uncertainty to prop bets, requiring caution.
Overall, the matchup leans towards pitcher dominance given the statistical projections.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Yankees vs Rays game? A: Chandler Simpson presents a strong betting prop opportunity with a projected increase in batting average against Rodón.

Q: Is the umpire assignment known for this game? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which adds volatility to potential prop bets.

Q: What time is the Yankees vs Rays game? A: The game is scheduled to start at 7:35 PM.

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