October 3, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Cubs vs Brewers: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 03)

Last updated: October 03, 2025

Game Time: 10/4, 02:08PM

Brief Intro

In a pivotal matchup at American Family Field, the Chicago Cubs face off against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are favored at -155 on DraftKings, with 56% of the money backing them, while the Cubs are underdogs at +127. This game presents intriguing angles, especially with the unique pitching and batting dynamics at play.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea vs Freddy Peralta

Colin Rea (CHC):

Colin Rea offers a diverse arsenal featuring: Four-Seam (42% usage, 93.8 mph), Splitter (12% usage, 87.4 mph), Slider (10% usage, 85.2 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 93.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.3 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 82.8 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 88.2 mph). Rea's pitch mix emphasizes a velocity-heavy approach with a blend of movement, making him a versatile pitcher against the Brewers. The Brewers lineup averages .260 this season with a projected xBA of .258 against Rea's varied offerings.

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Freddy Peralta leans on power with his Four-Seam (54% usage, 94.8 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph). The Cubs lineup, which averages .253, projects a slight drop to a .248 xBA versus Peralta's high-octane setup.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Cubs vs Freddy Peralta:

The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .248 vs Peralta's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .290 (+28 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.4% (+1.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%)

For Brewers vs Colin Rea:

The Brewers lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .258 vs Rea's mix.
Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .283 (+29 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.9% (-1.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Sal Frelick: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (-30 points), Season K% 13.5% → Arsenal K% 14.3% (+0.8%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average, indicating potential value in strikeout props.
The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.4% vs Rea — up 1.5% from their 18.9% season average, suggesting moderate contact with increased strikeout potential.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Michael Busch (.261 → .290, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Michael Busch shows a significant batting advantage against Peralta, meeting our prop lean criteria.
Freddy Peralta's strikeout potential is enhanced against the Cubs lineup, suggesting an over on strikeout props.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop predictions.
Overall, focus on individual player props rather than team outcomes due to lineup volatility.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Brewers game? A: Michael Busch meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .290 against Peralta.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so tendencies cannot be assessed.

Q: What time is the Cubs vs Brewers game? A: The game is scheduled for 10/4, 02:08PM.

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