Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Sox vs Yankees: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 23)
Last updated: August 23, 2025
Game Time: 8/23, 01:05PM
Brief Intro
The Boston Red Sox face off against the New York Yankees in a classic AL East showdown. With DraftKings listing the Red Sox as a −127 favorite and the Yankees as a +104 underdog, the betting community seems to lean towards Boston, with 53% of the money backing them. This matchup will offer intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics and potential prop opportunities.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs Will Warren
Garrett Crochet (BOS):
Garrett Crochet brings a varied arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 96.3 mph), Cutter (29% usage, 91.0 mph), Sweeper (14% usage, 82.6 mph), Sinker (14% usage, 95.7 mph), and Changeup (4% usage, 88.1 mph). Crochet is a velocity-heavy pitcher who relies on overpowering hitters, particularly with his fastball and cutter combination. The Yankees lineup has averaged .265 this season but projects to a .287 xBA against Crochet's mix.
Will Warren (NYY):
Will Warren counters with a solid mix, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 93.2 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 93.1 mph), Sweeper (21% usage, 82.5 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 86.9 mph), and Curveball (7% usage, 79.8 mph). Warren is more of a pitch-mix artist, using a balanced approach to keep hitters off balance. The Red Sox lineup, which averages .270 on the season, is projected to hit .246 against Warren's pitching style.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Boston vs Will Warren:
The Red Sox lineup averages .270 this season but projects to a .246 xBA against Warren's arsenal.
- Masataka Yoshida: Season BA .236 → xBA vs arsenal .263 (+27 points), Season K% 17.5% → Arsenal K% 16.6% (-0.9%)
- Jhostynxon Garcia: Season BA .299 → xBA vs arsenal .196 (-103 points), Season K% 13.4% → Arsenal K% 39.4% (+26%)
For New York vs Garrett Crochet:
The Yankees lineup averages .265 this season and projects to a .287 xBA against Crochet's arsenal.
- Trent Grisham: Season BA .246 → xBA vs arsenal .328 (+82 points), Season K% 21.0% → Arsenal K% 14.2% (-6.8%)
- Giancarlo Stanton: Season BA .303 → xBA vs arsenal .270 (-33 points), Season K% 29.7% → Arsenal K% 24.3% (-5.4%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 23.1% vs Will Warren — up 2.2% from their 20.9% season average.
- The Yankees' projected K-rate is 21.0% vs Garrett Crochet — down 2.7% from their 23.7% season average.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Trent Grisham (.246 → .328, +82 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant edges as neither team's K-rate jumps substantially to meet our betting threshold.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Trent Grisham is a standout batter with a significant projected increase in performance against Garrett Crochet.
- No significant strikeout prop opportunities due to lack of substantial K-rate increases.
- Umpire assignment is unknown, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
- Consider Grisham for a batting prop based on projected performance boost.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the BOS vs NYY game? A: Trent Grisham meets our strict betting criteria with a significant projected performance boost.
Q: Is [Umpire Name] a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to the matchup.
Q: What time is the BOS vs NYY game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/23 at 01:05PM.
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