August 25, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Twins vs Jays: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 25)

Last updated: August 25, 2025

Game Time: 8/25, 07:07PM

Matchup Setup

The Minnesota Twins head north to face the Toronto Blue Jays in a pivotal matchup. The Jays are favored at -144 according to DraftKings, while the Twins are underdogs at +119. An overwhelming 93% of the betting money supports the Blue Jays, indicating strong public confidence in Toronto's home-field advantage.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Joe Ryan vs Max Scherzer

Joe Ryan (MIN):

Joe Ryan brings a diverse arsenal with high velocity and strategic pitch mixing: Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 95.1 mph), Changeup (25% usage, 86.6 mph), Slider (18% usage, 89.0 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 91.5 mph), Curveball (3% usage, 80.8 mph), and Sinker (2% usage, 94.8 mph). Ryan is a velocity-heavy pitcher who relies on a powerful fastball complemented by off-speed pitches.

The Blue Jays lineup averages .274 this season with a projected xBA of .278 against Ryan's pitches, suggesting Toronto could maintain their offensive strength against him.

Max Scherzer (TOR):

Max Scherzer, a seasoned veteran, delivers a potent mix: Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 93.8 mph), Slider (25% usage, 86.5 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 85.1 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 76.7 mph), and Cutter (2% usage, 87.8 mph). Scherzer is a master of the pitch mix, using his slider and fastball to keep batters off balance.

The Twins lineup averages .239 this season but projects to .230 against Scherzer's arsenal, indicating a potential struggle at the plate for Minnesota.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Twins vs Scherzer:

Kody Clemens shows the biggest increase: Season BA .209 → xBA vs Scherzer .231 (+22 points), Season K% 23.0% → Arsenal K% 26.3% (+3.3%).

For the Blue Jays vs Ryan:

Daulton Varsho shows the biggest increase: Season BA .234 → xBA vs Ryan .266 (+32 points), Season K% 29.4% → Arsenal K% 27.7% (-1.7%).
George Springer shows the biggest decrease: Season BA .292 → xBA vs Ryan .260 (-32 points), Season K% 18.0% → Arsenal K% 20.9% (+2.9%).

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Twins' projected K-rate is 26.2% vs Scherzer — up 3.7% from their 22.5% season average. This suggests a potential for higher strikeouts.
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 17.5% vs Ryan — slightly up 0.7% from their 16.8% season average, indicating stable contact potential.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Daulton Varsho (.234 → .266, +32 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Max Scherzer strikeout OVER - Twins' K-rate jumps to 26.2% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Key Player Advantages: Daulton Varsho projects a significant increase in batting average against Joe Ryan.
Pitcher Prop Opportunities: Max Scherzer offers a strong strikeout prop against a Twins lineup with an elevated K-rate.
Umpire Impact Assessment: With umpire assignment pending, betting volatility is heightened.
Overall Betting Recommendation: Consider Scherzer's strikeout potential and Varsho's increased batting advantage when placing bets.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Twins vs Jays game? A: Daulton Varsho meets our strict betting criteria with a significant projected increase in batting average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, introducing potential volatility in prop bets.

Q: What time is the Twins vs Jays game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/25, 07:07PM.

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