August 25, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Padres vs Mariners: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 25)

Last updated: August 25, 2025

Game Time: 8/25, 09:40PM

Brief Intro

The San Diego Padres face off against the Seattle Mariners in an intriguing matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners are favored at -132 according to DraftKings, while the Padres are +108 underdogs. Notably, 59% of the betting public is backing the Padres, highlighting the confidence in their potential upset.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: JP Sears (SD) vs Bryce Miller (SEA)

JP Sears (SD):

JP Sears brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound for the Padres. His pitch mix includes a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 92.2 mph), Sweeper (27% usage, 79.1 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 83.4 mph), Slider (7% usage, 80.7 mph), Sinker (6% usage, 90.4 mph), and Curveball (4% usage, 79.5 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Sears leverages a variety of speeds and movements to keep hitters off balance. The Mariners lineup, which averages .248 this season, has a projected xBA of .224 against Sears' arsenal.

Bryce Miller (SEA):

Bryce Miller, on the other hand, relies more on velocity with his Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 94.6 mph) and Sinker (18% usage, 94.3 mph). He complements these with a Splitter (15% usage, 83.3 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 83.2 mph), Slider (9% usage, 85.3 mph), Sweeper (6% usage, 82.8 mph), and Cutter (2% usage, 91.4 mph). The Padres lineup, which averages .271 this season, projects to maintain a similar xBA of .272 against Miller, indicating a potential for solid contact.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Away Team vs Home Pitcher: The Padres lineup averages .271 this season but projects to .272 vs Bryce Miller's arsenal. Key performers include:

📈 Ryan O'Hearn: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .309 (+30 points), Season K% 18.5% → Arsenal K% 16.0% (-2.5%)
📈 Gavin Sheets: Season BA .256 → xBA vs arsenal .286 (+30 points), Season K% 19.7% → Arsenal K% 19.4% (-0.3%)

For Home Team vs Away Pitcher: The Mariners lineup averages .249 this season but projects to .224 vs JP Sears' arsenal. Key performers include:

📉 Josh Naylor: Season BA .282 → xBA vs arsenal .234 (-48 points), Season K% 14.3% → Arsenal K% 22.5% (+8.2%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Padres' projected K-rate is 17.8% vs Bryce Miller — up 0.6% from their 17.2% season average.
The Mariners' projected K-rate is 25.9% vs JP Sears — up 4.5% from their 21.4% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Ryan O'Hearn (.279 → .309, +30 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: JP Sears strikeout OVER - Mariners' K-rate jumps to 25.9% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Ryan O'Hearn and Gavin Sheets have strong batting projections against Bryce Miller.
JP Sears could capitalize on the Mariners' elevated strikeout rate.
Umpire details are unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Consider leaning on player prop bets for O'Hearn and strikeout props for Sears.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Padres vs Mariners game? A: Ryan O'Hearn stands out with a projected xBA of .309 against Bryce Miller, meeting our betting criteria.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is yet to be announced, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Padres vs Mariners game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/25 at 09:40PM.

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