Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Rockies vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 24)
Last updated: August 24, 2025Game Time: 8/24, 12:05PM
Matchup Setup
The Colorado Rockies head to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a showdown featuring contrasting team dynamics. DraftKings lists the Pirates as heavy favorites at -382, while the Rockies are at +292, with a considerable 57% backing the home team. This game presents intriguing pitcher-batter matchups that could influence betting outcomes significantly.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: McCade Brown vs Paul Skenes
McCade Brown (COL):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 96.8 mph), Sinker (20% usage, 95.8 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 83.6 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 88.3 mph), Cutter (6% usage, 92.8 mph), Slider (4% usage, 90.6 mph)
McCade Brown is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse arsenal. His fastball and sinker combination aims to overpower hitters, while his secondary pitches offer variety. The Pirates lineup, however, averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Brown's mix, indicating a marginally favorable matchup for Pittsburgh.
Paul Skenes (PIT):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 98.2 mph), Sweeper (16% usage, 84.5 mph), Splitter (15% usage, 93.7 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 88.3 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 97.7 mph), Slider (6% usage, 85.1 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 83.6 mph)
Paul Skenes brings a power-packed arsenal with a high-velocity fastball, complemented by a variety of breaking pitches. The Rockies lineup, which averages .267 this season, projects to hit .237 against Skenes' offerings, highlighting a challenging matchup for Colorado hitters.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Rockies vs Paul Skenes:
- The Rockies lineup averages .267 this season but projects to .237 against Skenes' arsenal.
- Ezequiel Tovar: Season BA .265 → xBA vs arsenal .288 (+23 points), Season K% 24.1% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (-1.0%)
- Jordan Beck: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .235 (-41 points), Season K% 27.9% → Arsenal K% 30.8% (+2.9%)
For Pirates vs McCade Brown:
- The Pirates lineup averages .237 this season but projects to .254 against Brown's arsenal.
- Jack Suwinski: Season BA .128 → xBA vs arsenal .206 (+78 points), Season K% 32.3% → Arsenal K% 32.2% (-0.1%)
- Henry Davis: Season BA .246 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-67 points), Season K% 26.9% → Arsenal K% 36.9% (+10.0%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
For the Rockies:
- Projected K-rate is 27.8% vs Paul Skenes — up 3.4% from their 24.3% season average.
For the Pirates:
- Projected K-rate is 23.4% vs McCade Brown — up 0.9% from their 22.5% season average.
Both teams show an increase in strikeout potential, with the Rockies facing a steeper climb, suggesting potential value in strikeout props for Skenes.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Jack Suwinski (.128 → .206, +78 points) meets betting lean criteria! His significant increase against Brown's arsenal presents an opportunity.
⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ezequiel Tovar stands out positively against Skenes, while Jordan Beck may struggle.
- Jack Suwinski shows significant potential against Brown, alerting a prop opportunity.
- Uncertainty in umpire assignment increases volatility in prop bets.
- Paul Skenes could capitalize on heightened strikeout potential against the Rockies.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rockies vs Pirates game? A: Jack Suwinski meets our strict betting criteria with a significant xBA increase.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA; thus, we cannot assess tendencies.
Q: What time is the Rockies vs Pirates game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/24 at 12:05PM.
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