October 7, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

NYY vs TOR: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 07)

Last updated: October 07, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Brief Intro

Today, the New York Yankees take on the Toronto Blue Jays in a matchup loaded with intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics. Although the betting odds are not available for this game, the analysis of the pitching matchups and lineup performances can provide valuable insights for bettors.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Luis Gil vs Kevin Gausman

Luis Gil (NYY):

Luis Gil brings a dynamic arsenal to the mound, featuring a variety of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 95.4 mph), Slider (35% usage, 87.5 mph), Splitter (20% usage, 81.7 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 82.1 mph), and Sinker (1% usage, 95.6 mph). Gil is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a mix of fastballs and breaking balls that challenge hitters. The Blue Jays lineup is averaging .258 this season but projects a .254 xBA against Gil's diverse arsenal.

Kevin Gausman (TOR):

Kevin Gausman relies on a powerful Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.5 mph), complemented by a deceptive Splitter (37% usage, 84.9 mph), a Slider (9% usage, 83.2 mph), and a rarely used Sinker (0% usage, 93.7 mph). Gausman is known for his splitter, which is a key out pitch. The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season, but Gausman's arsenal projects to suppress them to a .222 xBA.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For NYY vs Kevin Gausman:

The Yankees lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .222 against Gausman.
Biggest decrease: Aaron Judge - Season BA .331 → xBA vs Gausman .231 (-100 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 39.6% (+16.0%)
Minimal favorable changes were noted.

For TOR vs Luis Gil:

The Blue Jays lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .254 against Gil.
Biggest increase: Jr. Guerrero - Season BA .292 → xBA vs Gil .314 (+22 points), Season K% 13.8% → Arsenal K% 15.6% (+1.8%)
Biggest decrease: George Springer - Season BA .309 → xBA vs Gil .248 (-61 points), Season K% 18.9% → Arsenal K% 27.8% (+8.9%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Yankees' projected K-rate is 29.4% vs Gausman — up 3.9% from their 25.5% season average.
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 21.5% vs Gil — up 2.9% from their 18.6% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities.

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Guerrero (.292 → .314, +22 points) meets betting lean criteria!

Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props.

⚡ K Prop Alert: Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER - Yankees' K-rate jumps to 29.4% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Aaron Judge faces a challenging matchup against Gausman, with projected declines in both BA and K%.
Jr. Guerrero shows potential for a strong performance against Gil, meeting our prop criteria.
Kevin Gausman’s arsenal poses a significant strikeout threat to the Yankees' lineup.
Umpire assignment is pending, adding a layer of uncertainty to prop bets.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the NYY vs TOR game? A: Jr. Guerrero shows a promising batting advantage against Luis Gil with a boosted xBA, making him a strong betting prop candidate.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leaving the influence on props uncertain.

Q: What time is the NYY vs TOR game? A: Game time is currently TBD.

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