October 7, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

CHC vs MIL: Betting Preview & Props (Oct 07)

Last updated: October 07, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Today's Setup

The Chicago Cubs take on the Milwaukee Brewers in a highly anticipated matchup, though specific game time and betting odds are currently unavailable. With both teams striving for a strategic edge, the focus will be on the pitchers' arsenals and how lineups can exploit or withstand them.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea vs Freddy Peralta

Colin Rea (CHC):

Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 93.8 mph), Splitter (12% usage, 87.4 mph), Slider (10% usage, 85.2 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 93.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.3 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 82.8 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 88.2 mph)

Colin Rea is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance. The Milwaukee lineup, however, averages .260 this season and projects a .258 xBA against Rea's offerings, indicating a slight edge for the Brewers.

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 88.9 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 78.8 mph), Slider (9% usage, 83.7 mph)

Freddy Peralta is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a dominant fastball. The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects slightly lower at .248 xBA against Peralta's arsenal, suggesting a challenging matchup for Chicago hitters.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For CHC vs Freddy Peralta:

Michael Busch: Season BA .261 → xBA vs Peralta .290 (+29 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 25.4% (+1.9%)
Kyle Tucker: Season BA .266 → xBA vs Peralta .179 (-87 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 17.8% (+3.1%)

For MIL vs Colin Rea:

Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .254 → xBA vs Rea .283 (+29 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 16.9% (-1.0%)
Sal Frelick: Season BA .288 → xBA vs Rea .258 (-30 points), Season K% 13.5% → Arsenal K% 14.3% (+0.8%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Freddy Peralta — up 4.2% from their 20.5% season average.
The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.4% vs Colin Rea — up 1.5% from their 18.9% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Michael Busch (.261 → .290, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Michael Busch presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a significant xBA increase.
Freddy Peralta's strikeout potential is high against a Cubs lineup with a rising K-rate.
Umpire details are unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, focus on Busch’s batting prop and Peralta’s strikeout potential for betting.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the CHC vs MIL game? A: Michael Busch meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .290 against Peralta.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so tendencies are currently unknown.

Q: What time is the CHC vs MIL game? A: Game time is currently TBD.

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