August 19, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Jays vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 19)

Last updated: August 19, 2025

Game Time: 8/19, 06:40PM

Game Overview

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in an intriguing matchup. DraftKings lists the Blue Jays as -150 favorites, with the Pirates as +123 underdogs. A significant 88% of the betting money is backing the Blue Jays, highlighting the public's confidence in Toronto's dominance.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Max Scherzer vs Mitch Keller

Max Scherzer (TOR):

Max Scherzer, a seasoned veteran, brings a diverse pitching arsenal featuring: Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 93.7 mph), Slider (25% usage, 86.6 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 76.6 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 85.2 mph), and Cutter (2% usage, 87.5 mph). Scherzer's mix of pitches and velocity makes him a formidable opponent. The Pirates lineup averages .235 this season with a projected xBA of .243 versus Scherzer's arsenal.

Mitch Keller (PIT):

Mitch Keller counters with a solid mix: Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 93.9 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 82.2 mph), Slider (16% usage, 86.9 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.8 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 77.3 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.1 mph). The Blue Jays lineup holds a .271 season average but projects to .270 against Keller's arsenal.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Blue Jays vs Mitch Keller:

The Blue Jays lineup averages .271 this season but projects to .270 vs Keller's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Andrés Giménez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .281 (+31 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.3% (-6.2%).
Biggest Decrease: Daulton Varsho: Season BA .235 → xBA vs arsenal .210 (-25 points), Season K% 30.9% → Arsenal K% 33.1% (+2.2%).

For the Pirates vs Max Scherzer:

The Pirates lineup averages .235 this season but projects to .243 vs Scherzer's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jack Suwinski: Season BA .131 → xBA vs arsenal .200 (+69 points), Season K% 31.4% → Arsenal K% 32.8% (+1.4%).
Biggest Decrease: Henry Davis: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .168 (-86 points), Season K% 26.9% → Arsenal K% 36.9% (+10%).

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 18.2% vs Keller — up 1% from their 17.2% season average.
The Pirates' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Scherzer — up 2.3% from their 22.4% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: TBA Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Andrés Giménez (.250 → .281, +31 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Max Scherzer strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Andrés Giménez projects a strong batting advantage against Keller, making him a prop target.
Max Scherzer's matchup against the Pirates indicates potential for high strikeout totals.
Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding uncertainty to prop betting.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the TOR vs PIT game? A: Andrés Giménez is a standout with a projected xBA of .281, meeting our betting criteria.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so tendencies are unknown.

Q: What time is the TOR vs PIT game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/19 at 06:40PM.

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