Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Jays vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 24)
Last updated: August 24, 2025
Game Time: 8/24, 01:40PM
Today's Setup
The Toronto Blue Jays square off against the Miami Marlins in a matchup that sees the Jays as the favorites. According to DraftKings, the Blue Jays are a −137 favorite, while the Marlins are +112 underdogs, with 71% of the betting money backing Toronto. This game is set to be a clash of styles and strengths, as both teams boast formidable pitching talents.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Eury Pérez
Kevin Gausman (TOR):
Kevin Gausman brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.3 mph), Splitter (37% usage, 84.9 mph), Slider (9% usage, 82.8 mph), and Sinker (0% usage, 93.7 mph). Gausman is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a devastating splitter that contributes to his strikeout capabilities. The Marlins lineup is hitting an average of .263 this season but projects to a lower .246 against Gausman's pitch mix.
Eury Pérez (MIA):
Eury Pérez counters with a power-packed arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage, 97.8 mph), Slider (22% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 79.7 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.7 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 82.6 mph), and Sinker (1% usage, 96.6 mph). Pérez's high velocity and diverse pitch mix make him a formidable opponent. The Blue Jays lineup, which averages a .270 season BA, is projected to hit .263 against Pérez's offerings.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Toronto vs Eury Pérez: The Blue Jays lineup averages .270 this season but projects to .263 against Pérez's arsenal. Notable player impacts include:
- Bo Bichette: Season BA .302 → xBA vs arsenal .291 (-11 points), Season K% 14.6% → Arsenal K% 17.9% (+3.3%)
- Ernie Clement: Season BA .274 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (-24 points), Season K% 11.1% → Arsenal K% 11.7% (+0.6%)
For Miami vs Kevin Gausman: The Marlins lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .246 against Gausman's arsenal. Key performers include:
- Agustín Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .299 (+49 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 15.6% (-6.9%)
- Jakob Marsee: Season BA .338 → xBA vs arsenal .178 (-160 points), Season K% 23.5% → Arsenal K% 31.6% (+8.1%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 19.1% vs Eury Pérez — up 2.0% from their 17.0% season average.
- The Marlins' projected K-rate is 24.8% vs Kevin Gausman — up 5.4% from their 19.3% season average.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
⚡ K Prop Alert: Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER - Marlins' K-rate jumps to 24.8% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Kevin Gausman's arsenal appears to effectively neutralize the Marlins' offensive strengths, highlighting a potential strikeout opportunity.
- Eury Pérez faces a Blue Jays lineup with slight vulnerabilities, particularly with Bo Bichette's increased strikeout risk.
- Agustín Ramírez stands out as a batting prop opportunity with a significant projected improvement against Gausman.
- Umpire assignment uncertainty adds a layer of volatility to prop betting considerations.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the TOR vs MIA game? A: Agustín Ramírez meets our criteria for a strong batting prop opportunity against Kevin Gausman.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leaving tendencies as an unknown factor.
Q: What time is the TOR vs MIA game? A: The game is scheduled to start at 8/24, 01:40PM.
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