Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Cardinals vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 19)
Last updated: August 19, 2025Game Time: 8/19, 06:40PM
Game Overview
In this intriguing matchup, the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Miami Marlins with the Marlins positioned as -143 favorites, as per DraftKings. The majority of bettors have thrown their weight behind Miami, with 67% of the money backing them. The Cardinals, meanwhile, enter as +118 underdogs, looking to defy the odds on the road.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs Edward Cabrera
Michael McGreevy (STL):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage, 92.9 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 83.5 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 91.8 mph), Cutter (10% usage, 88.4 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 79.2 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 88.1 mph), Slider (0% usage, 84.0 mph)
Michael McGreevy is a pitch-mix artist, relying on a diverse array of pitches to keep hitters off balance. The Marlins lineup has averaged .275 this season but projects to a slightly higher xBA of .286 against McGreevy's varied arsenal.
Edward Cabrera (MIA):
- Arsenal: Changeup (25% usage, 94.0 mph), Curveball (24% usage, 83.8 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 96.7 mph), Slider (18% usage, 88.6 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage, 96.9 mph)
Edward Cabrera is a power pitcher, leaning on high-velocity pitches to overpower hitters. The Cardinals lineup averages .257 this season and projects a lower xBA of .244 against Cabrera’s potent mix, indicating a challenging matchup for the Cardinals' bats.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Cardinals vs Edward Cabrera:
- Nolan Gorman: Season BA .225 → xBA vs arsenal .247 (+22 points), Season K% 29.9% → Arsenal K% 31.2% (+1.3%)
- Iván Herrera: Season BA .287 → xBA vs arsenal .205 (-82 points), Season K% 21.1% → Arsenal K% 30.2% (+9.1%)
For the Marlins vs Michael McGreevy:
- Jakob Marsee: Season BA .375 → xBA vs arsenal .441 (+66 points), Season K% 18.2% → Arsenal K% 16.1% (-2.1%)
- Otto Lopez: Season BA .239 → xBA vs arsenal .209 (-30 points), Season K% 14.2% → Arsenal K% 20.7% (+6.5%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 23.68% vs Cabrera — up 2.22% from their 21.46% season average.
- The Marlins' projected K-rate is 16.39% vs McGreevy — up 0.57% from their 15.82% season average.
Higher K-rates suggest potential value in strikeout props, especially for Cabrera.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Jakob Marsee (.375 → .441, +66 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Edward Cabrera strikeout OVER - Cardinals' K-rate jumps to 23.68% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Player Advantages: Jakob Marsee shows a significant increase in xBA against McGreevy, making him a strong candidate for prop bets.
- Pitcher Prop Opportunities: Edward Cabrera's arsenal suggests a solid chance for a strikeout over bet.
- Umpire Impact: No umpire data available, increasing betting risk.
- Overall Recommendation: Focus on Cabrera's strikeout potential and Marsee's batting prop.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cardinals vs Marlins game? A: Jakob Marsee stands out with a significant boost in xBA against McGreevy.
Q: Is [Umpire Name] a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, introducing volatility in prop betting.
Q: What time is the Cardinals vs Marlins game? A: The game is at 8/19, 06:40PM.
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