Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Brewers vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 19)
Last updated: August 19, 2025Game Time: 8/19, 02:20PM
Game Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. With the Cubs positioned as a -144 favorite and the Brewers as a +118 underdog according to DraftKings, the betting community appears to lean towards Milwaukee, with 70% of the money backing the Brewers. This matchup will feature a compelling pitching duel between Brandon Woodruff and Jameson Taillon, each aiming to exploit the other team's lineup weaknesses.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs Jameson Taillon
Brandon Woodruff (MIL):
Woodruff's arsenal is a blend of velocity and finesse, featuring a mix of fastballs and off-speed pitches. His pitch distribution includes:- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 93.1 mph)
- Sinker (31% usage, 93.0 mph)
- Changeup (18% usage, 83.7 mph)
- Cutter (12% usage, 89.6 mph)
- Curveball (5% usage, 79.0 mph)
- Sweeper (2% usage, 80.6 mph)
The Cubs lineup averages .254 this season with a projected xBA of .266 against Woodruff's arsenal, suggesting they might find success against his mix.
Jameson Taillon (CHC):
Taillon is a pitch-mix artist, leveraging a variety of pitches to keep hitters off-balance:- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 92.3 mph)
- Sweeper (16% usage, 80.3 mph)
- Curveball (15% usage, 79.7 mph)
- Cutter (14% usage, 86.0 mph)
- Changeup (11% usage, 84.4 mph)
- Sinker (6% usage, 92.4 mph)
The Brewers lineup averages .264 this season but projects to a .255 xBA against Taillon's offerings, indicating potential challenges for Milwaukee hitters.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Brewers vs Jameson Taillon:
- Andrew Vaughn shows the biggest batting improvement: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .287 (+45 points), Season K% 19.0% → Arsenal K% 17.0% (-2.0%).
For Cubs vs Brandon Woodruff:
- Seiya Suzuki stands out with a significant boost: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .304 (+54 points), Season K% 25.7% → Arsenal K% 23.0% (-2.7%).
- Kyle Tucker experiences a decline: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .213 (-48 points), Season K% 14.4% → Arsenal K% 20.8% (+6.4%).
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.3% vs Taillon — up 1.0% from their 19.3% season average.
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 20.1% vs Woodruff — down 0.02% from their 20.1% season average.
These metrics suggest limited strikeout opportunities, offering minimal prop value.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Dan Merzel
Dan Merzel's involvement adds a pitcher-friendly dynamic due to his -2% strikeout rate and -16% walk rate. This suggests a favorable environment for pitchers to excel, reducing potential run-scoring opportunities.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Seiya Suzuki (.250 → .304, +54 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our threshold given the projected K-rates.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Seiya Suzuki shows a strong batting edge against Woodruff, making him a prime prop candidate.
- Andrew Vaughn's improved projections offer a potential value play for Milwaukee.
- Dan Merzel's pitcher-friendly tendencies could suppress offensive outputs, enhancing pitcher performances.
- No standout strikeout prop opportunities were identified, focusing attention on batting props.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: Seiya Suzuki stands out with a strong xBA against Woodruff, making him a prime candidate for batting props.
Q: Is Dan Merzel a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Yes, Dan Merzel is slightly pitcher-friendly with a -2% strikeout and -16% walk rate.
Q: What time is the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/19, 02:20PM.
---
Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!
---
