August 19, 2025
Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.


Brewers vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 19)

Last updated: August 19, 2025

Game Time: 8/19, 02:20PM

Game Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. With the Cubs positioned as a -144 favorite and the Brewers as a +118 underdog according to DraftKings, the betting community appears to lean towards Milwaukee, with 70% of the money backing the Brewers. This matchup will feature a compelling pitching duel between Brandon Woodruff and Jameson Taillon, each aiming to exploit the other team's lineup weaknesses.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs Jameson Taillon

Brandon Woodruff (MIL):

Woodruff's arsenal is a blend of velocity and finesse, featuring a mix of fastballs and off-speed pitches. His pitch distribution includes:

  • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 93.1 mph)
  • Sinker (31% usage, 93.0 mph)
  • Changeup (18% usage, 83.7 mph)
  • Cutter (12% usage, 89.6 mph)
  • Curveball (5% usage, 79.0 mph)
  • Sweeper (2% usage, 80.6 mph)

The Cubs lineup averages .254 this season with a projected xBA of .266 against Woodruff's arsenal, suggesting they might find success against his mix.

Jameson Taillon (CHC):

Taillon is a pitch-mix artist, leveraging a variety of pitches to keep hitters off-balance:

  • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 92.3 mph)
  • Sweeper (16% usage, 80.3 mph)
  • Curveball (15% usage, 79.7 mph)
  • Cutter (14% usage, 86.0 mph)
  • Changeup (11% usage, 84.4 mph)
  • Sinker (6% usage, 92.4 mph)

The Brewers lineup averages .264 this season but projects to a .255 xBA against Taillon's offerings, indicating potential challenges for Milwaukee hitters.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Brewers vs Jameson Taillon:

  • Andrew Vaughn shows the biggest batting improvement: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .287 (+45 points), Season K% 19.0% → Arsenal K% 17.0% (-2.0%).

For Cubs vs Brandon Woodruff:

  • Seiya Suzuki stands out with a significant boost: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .304 (+54 points), Season K% 25.7% → Arsenal K% 23.0% (-2.7%).
  • Kyle Tucker experiences a decline: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .213 (-48 points), Season K% 14.4% → Arsenal K% 20.8% (+6.4%).

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

  • The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.3% vs Taillon — up 1.0% from their 19.3% season average.
  • The Cubs' projected K-rate is 20.1% vs Woodruff — down 0.02% from their 20.1% season average.

These metrics suggest limited strikeout opportunities, offering minimal prop value.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Dan Merzel

Dan Merzel's involvement adds a pitcher-friendly dynamic due to his -2% strikeout rate and -16% walk rate. This suggests a favorable environment for pitchers to excel, reducing potential run-scoring opportunities.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Seiya Suzuki (.250 → .304, +54 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our threshold given the projected K-rates.

🔑 Key Takeaways

  • Seiya Suzuki shows a strong batting edge against Woodruff, making him a prime prop candidate.
  • Andrew Vaughn's improved projections offer a potential value play for Milwaukee.
  • Dan Merzel's pitcher-friendly tendencies could suppress offensive outputs, enhancing pitcher performances.
  • No standout strikeout prop opportunities were identified, focusing attention on batting props.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: Seiya Suzuki stands out with a strong xBA against Woodruff, making him a prime candidate for batting props.

Q: Is Dan Merzel a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Yes, Dan Merzel is slightly pitcher-friendly with a -2% strikeout and -16% walk rate.

Q: What time is the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/19, 02:20PM.

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