August 19, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Brewers vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 19)

Last updated: August 19, 2025

Game Time: 8/19, 02:20PM

Matchup Setup

The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. DraftKings places the Cubs as -144 favorites, while the Brewers stand as +118 underdogs, with 70% of the money backing the Brewers. This betting line suggests a tight game where pitching matchups could play a significant role.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Chad Patrick (MIL) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)

Chad Patrick (MIL):

Chad Patrick brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Slider (35% usage, 80.1 mph), Sinker (31% usage, 91.4 mph), Cutter (23% usage, 87.2 mph), Changeup (8% usage, 80.9 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage, 91.4 mph), and Curveball (1% usage, 67.8 mph). Patrick is a pitch-mix artist, relying on a varied repertoire rather than overpowering velocity. The Cubs lineup averages .270 this season with a projected xBA of .269 vs Patrick's arsenal.

Matthew Boyd (CHC):

Matthew Boyd counters with a traditional fastball-changeup combo: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.8 mph), Slider (15% usage, 81.6 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 73.7 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 91.9 mph). Boyd is a velocity-heavy pitcher, and the Brewers lineup averages .250 this season but projects to .245 against Boyd's pitches.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Brewers vs Matthew Boyd:

The Brewers lineup averages .251 this season but projects a .245 xBA vs Boyd's arsenal.
Biggest Decrease: Brice Turang: Season BA .280 → xBA vs arsenal .251 (-29 points), Season K% 22.6% → Arsenal K% 25.6% (+3.0%).

For Cubs vs Chad Patrick:

The Cubs lineup averages .248 this season and projects a .270 xBA vs Patrick's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Reese McGuire: Season BA .230 → xBA vs arsenal .285 (+55 points), Season K% 20.9% → Arsenal K% 23.2% (+2.3%).

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For Brewers:

The Brewers' projected K-rate is 21.8% vs Boyd — up 1.3% from their 20.4% season average. This suggests a moderate strikeout risk for the Brewers.

For Cubs:

The Cubs' projected K-rate is 19.9% vs Patrick — down 1.5% from their 21.4% season average. This indicates a potential contact play for Cubs hitters.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Dan Merzel

Dan Merzel provides a slightly pitcher-friendly environment with a -2% strikeout boost and -16% walk reduction. This suggests pitchers might have a slight edge in controlling the game with fewer walks awarded.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Reese McGuire (.230 → .285, +55 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for pitcher strikeout props.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Reese McGuire projects a significant batting average increase against Chad Patrick, making him a noteworthy prop candidate.
Chad Patrick's diverse pitching style faces a Cubs lineup that projects well against him, suggesting potential hitting opportunities for Chicago.
Umpire Dan Merzel's tendencies may favor pitchers slightly, with reduced walk rates likely impacting game flow.
Overall, McGuire's batting prop offers the strongest betting opportunity in this matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: Reese McGuire meets our strict betting criteria with a significant projected batting average increase.

Q: Is Dan Merzel a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Dan Merzel is slightly pitcher-friendly with a +2% strikeout boost and a -16% walk rate.

Q: What time is the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: 8/19, 02:20PM

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