August 19, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

ATH vs Twins: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 19)

Last updated: August 19, 2025

Game Time: 8/19, 07:40PM

Game Preview

Tonight’s matchup features the Athletics (ATH) visiting the Twins (MIN) with the first pitch set for 7:40 PM. DraftKings lists the Twins as a -151 favorite while the Athletics come in as +124 underdogs, despite 70% of the money backing the Athletics. This intriguing clash highlights some fascinating pitching and lineup dynamics ripe for bettors to consider.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Jacob Lopez vs Joe Ryan

Jacob Lopez (ATH):

Lopez showcases a diverse pitching arsenal, characterized by a balanced mix of velocity and movement:

Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 90.7 mph)
Slider (31% usage, 78.2 mph)
Cutter (14% usage, 87.7 mph)
Changeup (14% usage, 82.7 mph)
Sinker (4% usage, 90.2 mph)

His approach leans towards a pitch-mix artist rather than pure velocity, challenging hitters with variation. The Twins lineup, which averages .236 this season, projects a slightly better xBA of .249 against Lopez’s array, suggesting moderate success.

Joe Ryan (MIN):

Ryan offers a powerful mix with a heavy reliance on his fastball:

Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 95.1 mph)
Changeup (25% usage, 86.6 mph)
Slider (18% usage, 89.0 mph)
Cutter (8% usage, 91.5 mph)
Curveball (3% usage, 80.9 mph)
Sinker (2% usage, 94.8 mph)

Ryan is a velocity-heavy pitcher, capable of overpowering batters. The Athletics lineup, with a season average of .264, projects a drop to .251 against Ryan’s arsenal, indicating potential struggles.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Athletics vs Joe Ryan: The Athletics lineup averages .264 but projects to a lower .251 against Ryan's pitching.

Biggest Increase: None meet significant increase criteria.
Biggest Decrease: Colby Thomas: Season BA .249 → xBA vs arsenal .200 (-49 points), Season K% 25.9% → Arsenal K% 24.9% (-1.0%)

For Twins vs Jacob Lopez: The Twins lineup averages .236 but projects a slightly improved .249 against Lopez's offerings.

Biggest Increase: Edouard Julien: Season BA .192 → xBA vs arsenal .282 (+90 points), Season K% 28.9% → Arsenal K% 24.0% (-4.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Luke Keaschall: Season BA .343 → xBA vs arsenal .297 (-46 points), Season K% 10.4% → Arsenal K% 10.4% (+0.0%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Athletics' projected K-rate is 21.3% vs Joe Ryan — down 1.1% from their 22.5% season average.
The Twins' projected K-rate is 20.3% vs Jacob Lopez — up 0.1% from their 20.2% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Edouard Julien (.192 → .282, +90 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant strikeout prop opportunities align with our threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Edouard Julien offers a strong batting prop opportunity with a significant projected boost.
No clear pitcher prop edges due to insufficient K% increases.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Athletics may struggle against Joe Ryan's velocity-heavy approach.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the ATH vs MIN game? A: Edouard Julien stands out, showing a significant increase in projected batting average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to predict tendencies.

Q: What time is the ATH vs MIN game? A: The game is scheduled for 07:40 PM.

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