August 24, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Astros vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 24)

Last updated: August 24, 2025

Game Time: 8/24, 01:35PM

Brief Intro

The Houston Astros travel to Baltimore to face the Orioles in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. With the Orioles favored at -137 and the Astros as +113 underdogs, 68% of the public money is backing Baltimore. This game will be a critical test for both teams as they jostle for playoff positioning.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Spencer Arrighetti vs Trevor Rogers

Spencer Arrighetti (HOU):

Pitch Mix: Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 93.1 mph), Curveball (21% usage, 77.6 mph), Cutter (15% usage, 87.4 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 79.8 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 84.7 mph), Sinker (4% usage, 92.1 mph)
Style & Matchup: Arrighetti is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance. The Orioles lineup averages .240 this season, with a projected xBA of .243 against Arrighetti's varied arsenal.

Trevor Rogers (BAL):

Pitch Mix: Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 93.2 mph), Changeup (25% usage, 86.5 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 92.9 mph), Slider (12% usage, 80.9 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 78.4 mph)
Style & Matchup: Rogers relies heavily on his fastball-changeup combination. The Astros lineup, averaging .265 this season, projects slightly lower at .256 against Rogers' offerings.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Astros vs Trevor Rogers:

The Astros lineup averages .265 this season but projects to .256 against Rogers' arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jeremy Peña: Season BA .250 → xBA .296 (+46 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.7% (-5.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Jose Altuve: Season BA .278 → xBA .248 (-30 points), Season K% 16.0% → Arsenal K% 16.4% (+0.4%)

For Orioles vs Spencer Arrighetti:

The Orioles lineup averages .240 this season but projects to .243 against Arrighetti's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Coby Mayo: Season BA .198 → xBA .226 (+28 points), Season K% 28.0% → Arsenal K% 26.0% (-2.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Jeremiah Jackson: Season BA .276 → xBA .259 (-17 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+3.7%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Astros: The projected K-rate is 20.2% vs Trevor Rogers, down 0.2% from their 20.3% season average.
Orioles: The projected K-rate is 25.5% vs Spencer Arrighetti, up 1.1% from their 24.4% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jeremy Peña (.250 → .296, +46 points) meets betting lean criteria!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jeremy Peña stands out with a significant projected batting average boost against Trevor Rogers.
Coby Mayo shows potential improvement against Spencer Arrighetti, making him a watch for lineups.
No clear strikeout prop edges due to minimal changes in projected K-rates.
Umpire assignment is unknown, adding uncertainty to the game's prop landscape.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Astros vs Orioles game? A: Jeremy Peña stands out with a significant projected increase in batting average against Trevor Rogers.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making tendencies unknown at this time.

Q: What time is the Astros vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/24, 01:35PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---