Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Astros vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 22)
Last updated: August 22, 2025Game Time: 8/22, 07:05PM
Brief Intro
The Houston Astros face off against the Baltimore Orioles in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. With both teams looking to gain an edge in the AL standings, they rely on their pitchers to stifle opposing lineups. Although betting odds are not available for this game, there are several intriguing angles to consider in this matchup.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Lance Jr. vs Cade Povich
Lance Jr. (HOU):
Lance Jr. brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Slider (33% usage, 82.8 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 91.5 mph), Changeup (20% usage, 86.8 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 82.6 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage, 91.9 mph), and Cutter (5% usage, 89.1 mph). This pitch-mix artist uses his slider as a primary weapon to keep hitters off balance. However, the Orioles lineup has a season batting average of .240 and projects a similar xBA of .2408 against Lance Jr.'s arsenal.
Cade Povich (BAL):
Cade Povich counters with a steady Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 92.3 mph), complemented by a Curveball (21% usage, 78.8 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 83.7 mph), Sweeper (14% usage, 82.8 mph), and Sinker (13% usage, 91.8 mph). His fastball-heavy approach may be tested by the Astros' lineup, which averages .2658 this season and projects a slightly lower xBA of .2503 against Povich's pitches.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Astros vs Cade Povich:
- The Astros lineup averages .2658 this season but projects to .2503 vs Povich's arsenal.
- Jeremy Peña shows the biggest increase: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .286 (+36 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 17.5% (-5.0%).
- Jose Altuve experiences the biggest decrease: Season BA .2737 → xBA vs arsenal .249 (-25 points), Season K% 16.3% → Arsenal K% 17.4% (+1.1%).
For Orioles vs Lance Jr.:
- The Orioles lineup averages .2403 this season and projects to .2409 vs Lance Jr.'s arsenal.
- Coby Mayo shows the biggest increase: Season BA .205 → xBA vs arsenal .228 (+23 points), Season K% 27.7% → Arsenal K% 26.2% (-1.5%).
- Jeremiah Jackson faces the biggest decrease: Season BA .2764 → xBA vs arsenal .230 (-46 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 27.7% (+7.6%).
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Astros' projected K-rate is 21.4% vs Cade Povich — up 1.2% from their 20.2% season average.
- The Orioles' projected K-rate is 25.6% vs Lance Jr. — up 1.3% from their 24.3% season average.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
No strikeout prop alerts as neither team's projected K-rate meets our betting threshold.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jeremy Peña is a standout batter to consider for props, meeting our lean criteria with a significant xBA boost.
- Coby Mayo also presents a strong batting profile, though not meeting all criteria for a prop alert.
- The unannounced umpire assignment adds uncertainty to prop bets.
- No strong strikeout prop opportunities identified.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Astros vs Orioles game? A: Jeremy Peña meets our strict betting criteria with a notable increase in xBA.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess influence.
Q: What time is the Astros vs Orioles game? A: 8/22, 07:05PM
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